Michael e Vassar (michaelvassar)
Michael Vassar is the president of the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence.
Bets & Predictions that Vassars' placed
| No. | Bet | Duration | Stakes | Predictor | Challenger |
|---|
No Prediction On the Record. |
Bets & Predictions Vassars' challenged
Predictions that Vassar has challenged.
| No. | Bet | Duration | Stakes | Predictor | Challenger |
|---|
| 143. |
By the year 2020 the technology will exist that will allow for the "faxing" (teleportation- sending/receiving) of actual inanimate objects, such as text books, clothing, jewelery and the like. |
16 years
02004-02020
|
|
Rob Schnitzer |
|
| 168. |
By 2050 most geologists will agree that most of earth's oil and gas reserves were not produced by decaying plants. |
46 years
02004-02050
|
|
Danny Hillis |
|
| 179. |
By 2010 more than 50 percent of books worldwide will be read on digital devices rather than in print form. |
5 years
02005-02010
|
|
Vinton G Cerf |
|
| 205. |
Google will face antitrust proceedings from the DOJ or a challenge to a merger or acquisition by the FTC. |
4 years
02005-02009
|
|
Rudy Rouhana |
|
| 211. |
If the next president of the USA will be a democrat and/or a female, the US's anual GPD growth, major Wall Street share indices (Dow Jones, NASDAQ comp.) by the end of the term in 2012 will be higher, unemployment rate lower than now. The death toll of US soldiers in foreign countries and the numbers of terror attacks in western countries will be lower. |
7 years
02005-02012
|
|
Daniel M Wigger |
|
| 217. |
Within the next 5 years, Google employees will become dissatisfied, and kick-start a new wave of new technology and prosperity in Silicon Valley. |
5 years
02005-02010
|
|
Juli Mallett |
|
| 223. |
By 2015, standardized tests for high school students in every state of the United States will directly evaluate students' understanding of the differences between scientific laws, scientific theories and the kinds of things often called theories outside the scientific community. |
10 years
02005-02015
|
|
Kathleen A Hansen |
|
| 225. |
Many types of cancer will be treated effectively with biofeedback coupled with imaging techniques, such as fMRI. |
8 years
02005-02013
|
|
Hugh B Grant |
|
| 244. |
Steve Jobs will be nominated for Presdident of the United States, by one of the two major political parties in 2012. |
6 years
02006-02012
|
|
Tyrone Boyd |
|
| 267. |
By 2010, the use of dial-up modems will represent less than 5 percent of all Internet access (represented as a percentage of all households) in the United States. As part of this prediction, I expect that at that time, dial-up service will cost significantly more than the slowest alternative, which will be substantially faster than dial-up. |
3 years
02006-02010
|
|
Glenn I Fleishman |
|
| 287. |
Within two generations, the Iranian people will become an anchor of freedom for the middle east. |
8 years
02007-02015
|
|
Russell A Mitchell |
|
| 295. |
By 2020, historians will agree that the the start of the 21st century also marked the beginning of the "Second" or "New Renaissance." |
13 years
02007-02020
|
|
Zeus Jones |
|
| 296. |
Until 2020 first effective and efficient meta entities (services, individuals, inventions) which are able to integrate and balance all main aspects/elements of civilization according to AQAL will be fully functional and consequently start to build functional civilization (absence of war, sustainable energy and information chains) |
13 years
02007-02020
|
$400
$200 |
Lukas Atao |
Michael e Vassar |
| 339. |
Immortal mice by 2015 |
7 years
02008-02015
|
|
R. L. |
|
| 345. |
Self-replicating manufacturing machines will be commonplace by 2020. |
12 years
02008-02020
|
|
Adrian Bowyer |
|
| 354. |
In 2010 more diesel passenger vehicles will be sold in the US than hybrids. |
3 years
02008-02011
|
|
Martin G Tobias |
|
| 405. |
By 2011 a mother will have the entire genome sequence of her unborn child from her own blood. |
3 years
02008-02011
|
$400
$200 |
Jonathan M Rothberg |
Michael e Vassar |
| 440. |
By 2012, current venture capital- and privately-funded methods of DNA sequencing, independent of any additional “incremental improvements” will be made obsolete by the technology described in The Economist (October 25th - 31st 2008; US print edition, p.82) and at http://www.5bases.com. |
4 years
02008-02012
|
|
Lux Veritas |
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