On the Record: Predictions
Discuss these predictions with the predictors themselves. If you decide you disagree, you can challenge a prediction and turn it into Long Bet.
NO.PREDICTIONDURATIONPREDICTOR
969.
Photon energies will cluster near 2.5 PeV: by January 1, 2036, at least one additional photon will be confirmed consistent with this value, and none will be confirmed at higher energy.
10 years
02026-02036
Matt Lorusso
968.
By 2050, the United Nations Security Council will cease to function as it is currently understood to, if it still exists at all.
24 years
02025-02050
Arkhos Winter
967.
By 2035, the DSM and diagnosis-centered therapy will dissolve in favor of direct nervous system reconsolidation.
? years
02025-???
Benjamin Krauth
966.
By 2040, Wikipedia will be widely considered irrelevant as a source of real understanding.
? years
02025-???
Benjamin Krauth
965.
By the year 2045, The Long Now Foundation will have formally ceased operations.
? years
02025-???
Benjamin Krauth
963.
By 2035 the US real estate market will start to see significant price divergence caused that is directly attributable to climate change.
10 years
02025-02035
Louis J Anderson
962.
In the next 5 years, the global market for health and coaching will rise at least 5 times
5 years
02025-02030
Oleg Moskvin
961.
By 2035, AI will not be able to generate a fully functional, ACID-compliant, testable, modern browser from just a natural language prompt.
10 years
02025-02035
Kenneth C Miller
960.
In a world where US politics is still dominated by the two current major political parties, Democratic and Republican, the first female POTUS will be a Republican.
? years
02025-???
S T
959.
Within 10 years, meat eating will be becoming socially unacceptable in the United States in the same way that cigarette smoking has become socially unacceptable.
11 years
02025-02035
David Abrams
