On the Record: Predictions
Discuss these predictions with the predictors themselves. If you decide you disagree, you can challenge a prediction and turn it into Long Bet.
NO.PREDICTIONDURATIONPREDICTOR
956.
By 2030 there will be a major automotive vendor offering 15 year warranties on EV batteries.
6 years
02024-02030
Gordon Shephard
955.
By the end of 2033, it will be possible to order a burger, fries, and a drink for delivery by flying drone in Santa Barbara, CA.
9 years
02024-02033
Ivan Bercovich
954.
Leonard Peltier will be freed from prison, during Donald Trump's second term.
5 years
02024-02029
Joseph L McCord
953.
Within ten years - the JWST will find evidence of photosynthezing life on an exoplanet.
10 years
02024-02034
Joseph L McCord
952.
Within ten years - at least a significant minority of physicists will conclude that special relativity theory, as it is presently understood, has to be amended.
10 years
02024-02034
Joseph L McCord
951.
By 2030, an AI will be able to CEO a startup; marshaling and overseeing other AI and human workers to create revenue.
7 years
02024-02030
Peter Vessenes
950.
There will be fewer than three hostile nuclear detonations on US soil within the next 2 years
2 years
02024-02026
Hjalmar Peters
949.
Commercially available electricity from nuclear fusion will not be utilized in an electric grid by 2035 as predicted by the Fusion Industry Association.
12 years
02024-02035
Steven B Kurtz
948.
Intel (INTC) will have a market cap of $1 trillion USD or more by Feb 27, 2035.
11 years
02024-02035
Micah D Wade
947.
Figure + OpenAI will demonstrate their collaborative robot interacting with human natural language commands, capable of executing the verbal commands of the human operator in a natural “un-staged” environment before the end of 2026.
2 years
02024-02026
Babak Rasolzadeh
