The purpose of Long Bets is to improve long–term thinking. Long Bets is a public arena for enjoyably competitive predictions, of interest to society, with philanthropic money at stake. The Long Now Foundation furnishes the continuity to see even the longest bets through to public resolution. This website provides a forum for discussion about what may be learned from the bets and their eventual outcomes.   MORE »


Featured Bet

Duration 4 years 02017-02020

PREDICTOR
Martin Rees

CHALLENGER
Steven Pinker

STAKES $400

will go to Givewell if Rees wins,
or Givewell if Pinker wins.

Featured Prediction

Duration 10 years 02019-02029

PREDICTOR
Andrew P McAfee