Bet 179

Duration 5 years (02005-02010)

“By 2010 more than 50 percent of books worldwide will be read on digital devices rather than in print form.”

Vinton G Cerf


Cerf's Argument

At some point, laptop or smaller devices with high quality displays and suitable access controls for intellectual property will make the sale
and consumption of books, sound and movies through these devices practical. Audio devices, such as Apple's iPOD, offers an example.
Carrying around a bunch of paper is unnecessary and despite the argument that a book doesn't need a battery or a re-charge, I believe that it will be very common for people to read for work and for pleasure with
the same device(s) they use daily to do their work. I don't think books are going away of course. And if electronic reading devices have not penetrated widely enough on a worldwide basis by 2010, I will lose my
bet :-)

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