Bet 168

Duration 46 years (02004-02050)

“By 2050 most geologists will agree that most of earth's oil and gas reserves were not produced by decaying plants.”

Danny Hillis


Hillis's Argument

The decaying plant life argument has always seemed implausible to me, and I see no strong evidence that it is true. Thomas Gold has made a good case for an alternative theory in "Deep Hot Biosphere". While there are problems with Gold?s theory also, it seems to me be closer to the truth. (The risky part of this bet is whether geologists will figure it out in 45 years.)

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