These bets are set in stone until they reach judgement. Read the arguments written in favor of each position and discuss the bets with the bettors themselves and the rest of the Long Bets community.
By 2043 there will be archaeological discoveries demonstrating equal or greater architectural advancement to the monuments at Göbekli Tepe, dating from before 11,000 BC.
$200 Samo Burja Scott Alexander
By January 1st, 2037, Tesla will have been the first company with 1 million vehicles that are capable of SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States, with human-level safety or better, and this capability will be usable by the general public commercially.
$200 Yarrow Bouchard Michael P Dierickx
An annual average temperature anomaly value above the 1850-1899 baseline will be published in the Berkeley Earth Global Temperature series as 2.0C or higher on or before the 2037 value (published in 2038).
$500 John Mitchell Zeke Hausfather
Private Nonfarm business productivity growth will average over 1.8 percent per year from the first quarter (Q1) of 2020 to the last quarter of 2029 (Q4).
$200 Erik Brynjolfsson Robert J Gordon
No Republican will be President of the USA before December 30, 2039.
$200 Michael d de la Maza Jason W Galbraith
The market capitalization of Berkshire Hathaway will be greater than Tesla on Warren Buffett's 100th birthday.
$250 Adam J Mead Thatcher Ulrich
A bitcoin will be worth less than $1000US by the end of 2025.
$1,000 Josh M Levine Thomas R Sohmers
By 2035 there will be at least 10 people living on Mars for a period of more than 2 months.
$250 Andrew A Burchill Thomas A Davis
Between 2021 and the end of 2030, annual fossil fuel emissions (excluding carbonation) will not exceed annual fossil fuel emissions (excluding carbonation) from 2019.
$1,000 Ted Nordhaus Ken Caldeira
Nuclear energy will decline as a proportion of global electricity generation over the 2020s.
$200 Simon Holmes à Court James B Kell