On the Record: Predictions

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NO.PREDICTIONDURATIONPREDICTOR

872. The solar system will not be converted to a giant Matrioshka brain in the next 989 years. 989 years
02021-03010
Jason W Galbraith

871. By 2025 there will be more than 100,000 high-functioning AI digital people at work in the United States. 4 years
02021-02025
William J O'Connor

870. Donald Trump will not be reinstated as president of the United States by January 1, 02024. 3 years
02021-02024
Peter G Andrijeski

869. Within 15 years, in some country with a population at least as large as the Netherlands, at least 10% of new homes under construction will be built by 3-D printing, probably of concrete. 15 years
02021-02036
Robert M Coppock

867. By 2031, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will establish a long term military presence, with elements of the People’s Liberation Arm (PLA), on a nation in the Western Hemisphere, specifically between longitude 30W and 135W. 10 years
02021-02030
John J Braunschweig

866. By 2050 we will have made several breakthroughs in biotechnology that will allow us to slow down aging, rejuvenate the body and hence extend healthy human lifespan to at least 120 years. This technology will be affordable enough so that it is available for the general public. 29 years
02021-02050
Max Unfried

865. A top Shakespearean editor or scholar will agree that Sir Thomas North is a reasonable candidate for authorship of at least one of Shakespeare’s source plays (including "Arden of Faversham.") 5 years
02021-02025
Dennis J McCarthy

864. By 2030, more than 10 million people will be using social networks wherein the content is store on servers or other storage that the user owns, with the network merely aggregating the content and providing a feed. 10 years
02021-02030
Oliver M Cox

863. By January first, 2024, the price of Bitcoin, as quoted in the Wall Street Journal, will be below 2500 USD. 3 years
02021-02024
Tim Bray

862. There will be no serious long-term adverse effects from mass mRNA vaccination against COVID-19. 5 years
02021-02026
Gabriel D Dimitrov

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