On the Record: Predictions
Discuss these predictions with the predictors themselves. If you decide you disagree, you can challenge a prediction and turn it into Long Bet.
NO.PREDICTIONDURATIONPREDICTOR
943.
Infant mortality will decrease and healthy lifespan increase worldwide by WHO statistics no matter how much climate change occurs between October 2023 and 31 October 2038.
15 years
02023-02038
Karl M Bunday
942.
Within the next 20 years, there will be no agreement to build at least one 1000 MW nuclear reactor within the borders the Republic of Latvia
Tuvāko 20 gadu laikā netiks noslēgta vienošanās uzbūvēt Latvijas Republikā vismaz vienu kodolreaktoru ar nominālo jaudu vismaz 1000 MW
20 years
02023-02044
Didzis Veinbergs
941.
By 2048 (25 years from now), consumers in the US will not have the option to purchase a fully self-driving car lacking a steering wheel, yet possessing the equivalent transportation capabilities of a standard 2023 sedan.
25 years
02023-02048
Adam Cheyer
940.
The total value of the short-term (vacation) rental market as a residential asset class will exceed that of the commercial real estate market by 2026, measured as total US market to total US market.
3 years
02023-02026
Clark S Twiddy
939.
Within the next five years, no language learning model (LLM) will be used by a Western nation law enforcement actor to make a sole determination on whether or not someone should be arrested.
5 years
02023-02028
Mike Parks
938.
S&P 500 will outperform Bitcoin by the end of 2140 (end of Bitcoin mining)
? years
02023-???
Edward Y Li
936.
"By April 26, 2033, the number of countries reporting outbreaks of Candida auris will have increased by at least 50% compared to the current number of affected countries (as of September 2021), indicating that Candida auris has become an epidemic in multiple regions of the world.
10 years
02023-02033
Ezra R Bleau
935.
World peace by October 30, 2150
128 years
02023-02150
Zachary J Waugaman
934.
The market share of new electric light duty vehicles (per the US EIA definition) sold in the US will exceed 17% (>17% EV + PHEV market share) by the end of 2030.
8 years
02023-02030
Ryan D McGlothlin
932.
It will come to light that the United States Federal Government has control of a significant portion of Bitcoin. They will leverage this Bitcoin holding to erase their National debt.
52 years
02023-02075
Jack Chapman
