On the Record: Predictions

Discuss these predictions with the predictors themselves. If you decide you disagree, you can challenge a prediction and turn it into Long Bet.

How Betting Works »

NO.PREDICTIONDURATIONPREDICTOR

918. The SETI Institute will not announce the detection of a signal from an extraterrestrial civilization (that is, a signal that is unambiguously non-natural and does not originate from Earth) within the next 20 years. 20 years
02022-02042
Taurus Londoño

917. From August 25, 2022 to the last trading day of August 2032, Alphabet stock will outperform Fundsmith hedge fund. 10 years
02022-02032
Will S

916. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will report more than 4,951,360 jobs in the transport and warehousing sector for July 2030. 9 years
02022-02031
Bill Murphy

911. Alan Finkel at the Sydney Energy Forum July 2022 predicted: by 2032 90% of new passenger car sales in the OECD will be electric with an average range of 1000 km or more and there will be at least 40 million tonnes per annum of demand for clean hydrogen. 10 years
02022-02032
Alan Finkel

910. I predict that Canada will be a failed state by 02042. 20 years
02022-02042
Jordan C Lewans

909. In 5 years, a bitcoin will be worth less than $100US. 5 years
02022-02027
Boran A Akin

908. Fewer that 25% of states with Roe v. Wade anti-abortion trigger bans will implement any meaningful improvements for child-related care or support within 3 years. 3 years
02022-02025
Joseph A Miller

907. Within the next 25 years the United States of America will no longer consist of 50 States 2 years
02022-02024
Jeremy P Day

906. In 2030, the share of world energy produced by solar will be < 2%, conditional on real gross world product (in 2015 USD at market exchange rates) being not less than $118 trillion. End date as soon as reputable data (World Bank, IEA, BP etc) for 2030 are available. ? years
02022-???
Carl Lumma

905. By 2080, a mathematician would win the Fields Medal before the age of 22, thus becoming the first undergraduate winner of the Fields Medal. 59 years
02022-02081
Shengtong Zhang

more

Looking for predictions that challengers have already turned into bets? See Bets on the Record!