On the Record: Predictions

Discuss these predictions with the predictors themselves. If you decide you disagree, you can challenge a prediction and turn it into Long Bet.

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881. In Winter 2030 Germany will have overcome the COVID pandemic. Excess mortality will be below pre-pandemic levels. Life expectancy for the elderly will be higher and entry restrictions for bars and restaurants will cease. 9 years
Kamil Pabis

880. Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2022, and ending on December 31, 2031, the S&P 500 will outperform Bitcoin. 10 years
Driton Odza

879. The emissions intensity of Australia's National Electricity Market will fall below 60 kgCO₂e/MWh before 30 June 2041 without the help of nuclear energy. 20 years
Simon Holmes à Court

878. There will be no coal plants operating in Australia by 31 December 2030 9 years
Evan B Beaver

877. By 2040, a SpaceX manufactured satellite will be involved in a collision with another object in space. 18 years
Chris Rodriguez

876. Ten years from now, on September 15th, 2031, one bitcoin will be worth more than 0.05 troy ounces of gold. 10 years
Harold Christopher Burger

874. Humanity will reach the escape of velocity of life extension within 2 years meaning that every year that we get to live longer, science will advance enough to extend human life span by the same number of years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity 2 years
Julian Kaljuvee

873. By 2046, a 100MW fusion plant will be in operation and selling electricity to the grid. 25 years
Kevin L Reynolds

872. The solar system will not be converted to a giant Matrioshka brain in the next 989 years. 989 years
Jason W Galbraith

871. By 2025 there will be more than 100,000 high-functioning AI digital people at work in the United States. 4 years
William J O'Connor


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