On the Record: Predictions
Discuss these predictions with the predictors themselves. If you decide you disagree, you can challenge a prediction and turn it into Long Bet.
NO.PREDICTIONDURATIONPREDICTOR
931.
Before Jan 1 2028, a text on the NY Times Bestsellers list will be generated through AI / machine learning process. Authorship may be through a pen-name with non-human authorship revealed after listing is achieved.
5 years
02023-02028
Marshall Hilgemann
928.
S&P 500 Total return will beat BRKB.
Starting point today: 12/23/2022
Ending point today: 12/23/2027
5 years
02022-02027
dividends20 dividends20
927.
Within 20 years electric scooter racing will surpass motorcycle racing in terms of popularity
20 years
02022-02042
Simon Pilepich
925.
Poland will synchronize its first nuclear power plant BEFORE Germany exits coal power.
? years
02022-???
Adam Błażowski
924.
Humanity will encounter super intelligent fully cybernetic extraterrestrial species before encountering super intelligent biological species.
? years
02022-???
Nicholas R Corcoran
922.
Sam Bankman-Fried will be charged with a crime for his actions at FTX/Alameda.
2 years
02022-02025
JP Bonner
921.
I predict that a space satellite launch company will have the highest market cap out of any publicly traded company by 2040
17 years
02022-02040
Engelo Rumora
920.
The NEOM THE LINE building will not be completed as currently envisaged.
Fewer than one million people will live in a single building at the foreseen location in 2035.
12 years
02022-02035
Ansgar J Brenninkmeijer
918.
The SETI Institute will not announce the detection of a signal from an extraterrestrial civilization (that is, a signal that is unambiguously non-natural and does not originate from Earth) within the next 20 years.
20 years
02022-02042
Taurus Londoño
917.
From August 25, 2022 to the last trading day of August 2032, Alphabet stock will outperform Fundsmith hedge fund.
10 years
02022-02032
Will S
