On the Record: Predictions

Discuss these predictions with the predictors themselves. If you decide you disagree, you can challenge a prediction and turn it into Long Bet.

How Betting Works »


934. The market share of new electric light duty vehicles (per the US EIA definition) sold in the US will exceed 17% (>17% EV + PHEV market share) by the end of 2030. 8 years
Ryan D McGlothlin

932. It will come to light that the United States Federal Government has control of a significant portion of Bitcoin. They will leverage this Bitcoin holding to erase their National debt. 52 years
Jack Chapman

931. Before Jan 1 2028, a text on the NY Times Bestsellers list will be generated through AI / machine learning process. Authorship may be through a pen-name with non-human authorship revealed after listing is achieved. 5 years
Marshall Hilgemann

928. S&P 500 Total return will beat BRKB. Starting point today: 12/23/2022 Ending point today: 12/23/2027 5 years
dividends20 dividends20

927. Within 20 years electric scooter racing will surpass motorcycle racing in terms of popularity 20 years
Simon Pilepich

925. Poland will synchronize its first nuclear power plant BEFORE Germany exits coal power. ? years
Adam Błażowski

924. Humanity will encounter super intelligent fully cybernetic extraterrestrial species before encountering super intelligent biological species. ? years
Nicholas R Corcoran

922. Sam Bankman-Fried will be charged with a crime for his actions at FTX/Alameda. 2 years
JP Bonner

921. I predict that a space satellite launch company will have the highest market cap out of any publicly traded company by 2040 17 years
Engelo Rumora

920. The NEOM THE LINE building will not be completed as currently envisaged. Fewer than one million people will live in a single building at the foreseen location in 2035. 12 years
Ansgar J Brenninkmeijer


Looking for predictions that challengers have already turned into bets? See Bets on the Record!