Bet 948

Duration 11 years (02024-02035)

“Intel (INTC) will have a market cap of $1 trillion USD or more by Feb 27, 2035.”

Micah D Wade


Wade's Argument

The equation to calculate the average Annual Percentage Yield (APY)* is: APY = [(F/P)^(1/n) - 1] * 100% Where: - F is the final amount. - P is the principal amount. - n is the number of years the investment was held. *This assumes an annual compounding cycle. On February 27th, 2023, according to Intel had a market cap of $104.43 billion USD. So 12 years later, if Intel at some point has a market cap of 1 trillion USD by Feb 27 2035, that will mean that the average APY will be at least 20.7%, almost double the historical average of the S&P500 (this ignores impacts of potential stock splits, additional shares issued, or stock buybacks). Intel reaching a market cap of $1 trillion USD would be a big deal. It would show that Intel’s changes to their business actually worked. I personally think that Intel has made some great moves lately that will pay off in a big way - changes like the “Five Nodes in Four Years” strategy, adapting to the foundry model, being the first to implement backside power delivery, being the first to receive shipment of an ASML High-NA EUV tool, investing in multi ion-beam mask writing IMS Nanofabrication GmbH, and building new huge fabs in Arizona, Ohio, Germany, Ireland and Israel. That is why I am making this bet. The US government passed the Chips Act of 2022 and in 2024, they divvied out $8.5 billion to Intel. To quote the US Secretary of Commerce, Gina Riamondo, “Years from now, when we judge the success of this program, we will be measured on at least two key imperatives. First, whether this program enabled us to build a reliable and resilient semiconductor industry that protects America’s technological leadership for the coming decades … Second, we will be judged on whether we were good stewards of taxpayer dollars.” (Feb 23, 2023) Such an achievement would signal not only Intel's remarkable success but also the broader impact of the technology sector on the economy and innovion. Intel's growth to this scale would drive economic expansion, job creation, and technological advancement. P.S. Pat Gelsinger, I wanna get coffee with you if I'm right please :D

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