Bet 946

Duration 10 years (02024-02033)

“By 2033, adult obesity levels in the United States will be 50% or less of those reported in 2023.”

Brant von Goble


Von Goble's Argument

Obesity is an epidemic in the United States, and management of obesity-related illnesses costs billions of dollars every year. Additionally, obese people suffer from social ostracism and reduced mobility. Thus, the demand for effective weight loss tools is considerable, yet most established treatments are neither practical nor sustainable. The introduction of semaglutide—a non-stimulant diabetes and weight loss medication—stands to change the American physique, mindset, and medical industry. Although semaglutide is still expensive, prices will drop as patents expire and generic formulations are brought to market. Once this happens, the use of this medication will become increasingly widespread, leading to a radical reduction in American obesity rates. Even overweight or obese people who do not use medication to control their caloric intake will indirectly benefit from semaglutide’s widespread adoption. As the market for large food portions and calorically dense cuisine shrinks, the number of fast-food restaurants in the United States will decrease, and even unmedicated Americans will discover that their diets improve due to the lack of unhealthy options. The shift away from recreational high-calorie dining will have profound consequences for the American way of life, changing the consumer economy, the perceived relationship between social class and aesthetics, and traffic and commuting patterns. With fewer people recreationally overeating, many restaurants will close (a previously mentioned point), and the time Americans drive to and from restaurants will proportionally decrease. And once everyone can afford treatments to be thin, being thin will no longer be associated with high socioeconomic status. Other significant changes will occur regarding leisure and socialization: When Americans spend less time eating, they will be able to engage in different activities, but how many of these will be social, solitary, or virtual is difficult to say. Nevertheless, the primary assertion of this prediction stands: Obesity rates in the United States will drop dramatically over the next decade.

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