Bet 941

Duration 25 years (02023-02048)

“By 2048 (25 years from now), consumers in the US will not have the option to purchase a fully self-driving car lacking a steering wheel, yet possessing the equivalent transportation capabilities of a standard 2023 sedan.”

Adam Cheyer


Cheyer's Argument

In 2023, self-driving car technology is making large strides. For instance, in San Francisco today, autonomous vehicles roam freely without drivers. However, I believe that a complete solution isn't close to ready, for the following reasons: - Cameras alone, such as those used in Teslas, fall short. They're easily blinded, limiting their usefulness. Lidar helps but may lack detail for real-world complexity. - Navigating the real world poses challenges. While they excel in controlled and pre-mapped environments, self-driving cars struggle with unexpected scenarios—be it a traffic-directing worker or a child chasing a ball. There are too many corner cases to be confident an autonomous car will behave in the right way for all situations. - Legal hurdles persist. Self-driving regulations are uncertain. Governments grapple with liability, insurance, and safety standards. Clear rules are needed before wide adoption, and this will take time. - Infrastructure isn't ready. Cities can adapt, but across the entire country, roads, signs, and traffic systems lag. Upgrades are essential for safe autonomous travel, which will take decades. - Ethical dilemmas persist. Instant life-or-death choices are tough. Swerving to save a pedestrian could risk passengers. Resolving these moral challenges is ongoing. - Trust is a barrier. Convincing people to rely on self-driving tech is hard. Despite progress, safety doubts remain. Education and communication are key to broad acceptance, and despite accelerating technology, changing habits of people takes time. In conclusion, self-driving technology is advancing rapidly, but full autonomy is still distant. The interplay of tech, rules, ethics, and societal norms suggests that it will be some time before a consumer can replace their existing car with one that lacks a steering wheel.

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