On the Record: Predictions

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NO.PREDICTIONDURATIONPREDICTOR

894. Oil will not be the resource war of the middle 21st century. Nor will rare earth elements matter. I predict by the end of the 2020’s and into the 2030’s war will be fought over the rarest and most sacred resource to life: Water. 18 years
02022-02040
Ana S Thompson

893. By the end of 2036, humans sent by SpaceX will have landed and walked on the surface of Mars. 15 years
02022-02036
Gabe Garboden

891. Within 10 years from now, free markets for the stablecoin TerraUSD (UST) will no longer exist, or more than 10 billion UST will have been traded below 0.90 USD, or UST will be backed by USD. 10 years
02022-02032
Hjalmar Peters

888. By the year 2030, there will be successful re-produced or remastered versions of 1990s 'classic' movies which replace main characters with Meme Characters or amusing replacements of the original starring characters such as such as cats, other animals or non-human entities. ? years
02022-???
Baron P Drumm

886. A manned mission to Mars will be underway or will have actually arrived there by the time Long Bets posts Prediction 1000. 12 years
02022-02033
Jason W Galbraith

885. In five years' time, by December 31, 02026, autonomous vehicles will be banned from public roadways. They will be legal to operate on completely automated roadways on which no non-autonomous vehicles will be allowed. 5 years
02021-02026
John V Corbett

884. In five years' time, by December 31, 2026, essential enterprise software, specifically MS Office for business and Avid Pro Tools for film, will be metered in seconds, rather than distributed in a sales or monthly subscription model. 5 years
02021-02026
John V Corbett

882. By 2045 the average mean temperature of the northern and southern hemispheres will be 45C near the equator the amt will be 54C. Perminant ice up to 2 feet deep will cover the plains of the USA and the Steppe and East land forms of Russia and southern Africa and South America. ? years
02021-???
jeff seiver

881. In Winter 2030 Germany will have overcome the COVID pandemic. Excess mortality will be below pre-pandemic levels. Life expectancy for the elderly will be higher and entry restrictions for bars and restaurants will cease. 9 years
02021-02031
Kamil Pabis

880. Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2022, and ending on December 31, 2031, the S&P 500 will outperform Bitcoin. 10 years
02021-02031
Driton Odza

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