On the Record: Predictions
Discuss these predictions with the predictors themselves. If you decide you disagree, you can challenge a prediction and turn it into Long Bet.
NO.PREDICTIONDURATIONPREDICTOR
175.
Within two years, at least two or more waterbags, connected by the world's strongest zipper into a train, carrying total of at least one and one half million gallons of fresh water, will be successfully towed from Washington State, under the Golden Gate Bridge into San Francisco Bay, and then south to Santa Monica Bay in Los Angeles. In five years there will be at least one hundred waterbags operating in various locations around the world, connected into trains of two waterbags or more, each train delivering an average of at least five milion gallons of water per delivery from loading points to receiving points throughout the world.
2 years
02004-02006
Terry G Spragg
173.
The concept of time as a linear dimension will be replaced by one of time as a polarity between content and context.
21 years
02004-02025
John B Merryman
172.
A machine capable of passing the Turing Test will be made in 2075 using only hardware that was available in 2005.
71 years
02004-02075
Kevin Kelly
168.
By 2050 most geologists will agree that most of earth's oil and gas reserves were not produced by decaying plants.
46 years
02004-02050
Danny Hillis
165.
By 2040 the existence of Qi will be accepted by the mainstream scientists, and Qi research will revolutionize our mechanical scientific TOE into a true TOE.
36 years
02004-02040
Datong Assoc
164.
That by 2020 it will be possible and desirable for urban houses to have a room in the house designed for, and dedicated to, producing a household's entire water supply. This will be achievable through condensation (a terarium effect) and using solar panel roof tiles to generate the energy to produce, purify and filter the water.
16 years
02004-02020
Michael F Olliffe
163.
You are immortal
20 years
02004-02024
Brendan McAuliffe
149.
US accounting and banking regulations will not require that loan portfolios held in the "banking book" be marked to market before 2024.
20 years
02004-02024
Stuart Brannan
148.
By 2006 a single-answer technology other than Google will emerge as the favored answering service and will remain in power for at least two years
3 years
02004-02006
John S Flowers
143.
By the year 2020 the technology will exist that will allow for the "faxing" (teleportation- sending/receiving) of actual inanimate objects, such as text books, clothing, jewelery and the like.
16 years
02004-02020
Rob Schnitzer
