On the Record: Predictions
Discuss these predictions with the predictors themselves. If you decide you disagree, you can challenge a prediction and turn it into Long Bet.
NO.PREDICTIONDURATIONPREDICTOR
149.
US accounting and banking regulations will not require that loan portfolios held in the "banking book" be marked to market before 2024.
20 years
02004-02024
Stuart Brannan
148.
By 2006 a single-answer technology other than Google will emerge as the favored answering service and will remain in power for at least two years
3 years
02004-02006
John S Flowers
143.
By the year 2020 the technology will exist that will allow for the "faxing" (teleportation- sending/receiving) of actual inanimate objects, such as text books, clothing, jewelery and the like.
16 years
02004-02020
Rob Schnitzer
141.
By 2020, 75% of all incremental new generation will come from renewable/sustainable energy in the U.S.
17 years
02004-02020
Jigar Shah
137.
The Long Bets Foundation will no longer exist in 2104.
100 years
02003-02104
Frank Toms
131.
DNA Emulation
? years
02003-???
John S Washburn
127.
Microsoft will be have the largest market capitalization of any publicly traded company in the world by 2015.
12 years
02003-02015
1 future
123.
Downtown American cities in two hundred years will look pretty much as they do now.
200 years
02003-02203
Kevin Kelly
122.
There will be only three significant currencies used in the world by 2063. More than 95 % of the countries in the world will use one of them.
60 years
02003-02063
Kevin Kelly
121.
One hundred years from now the world's governments will formally and legally recognize the basic human right of mobility: a person may live anywhere on earth if they agree to obey local laws.
100 years
02003-02103
Kevin Kelly
