Bet 181

Duration 97 years (02005-02101)

“I predict that my projections for methane atmospheric concentrations, industrial carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and atmospheric concentrations, and resultant lower tropospheric temperatures will be more accurate than those found in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) Third Assessment Report (TAR).

The following are my (MB) projections and the IPCC TAR projections for methane atmospheric concentrations (in ppb, worth 1 point), industrial CO2 emissions (in Gigatons as carbon, worth 1 point), CO2 atmospheric concentrations (in ppm, worth 1 point) and lower tropospheric temperature increases (in degrees Celsius relative to 1990, worth 3 points). The projections are for the years 2030, 2070, and 2100.

2030, MB: 1790, 8.8, 425, 0.36
2030, IPCC: 2060, 13.2, 438, 0.80

2070, MB: 1825, 7.0, 527, 0.82
2070, IPCC: 2300, 16.4, 610, 2.17

2100, MB: 1840, 4.0, 558, 1.20
2100, IPCC: 2450, 16.4, 720, 3.06

Lower tropospheric temperatures are as measured by satellite, in a 3-year average around the year in question (e.g. 2030 would be 2029, 2030, 20310. This bet is only open to members of the IPCC.”

Mark A Bahner


Bahner's Argument

The IPCC TAR's projections for atmospheric methane concentrations, CO2 emissions, and CO2 atmospheric concentrations are much too high. These result in projected temperature increases that are much higher than will actually occur in the 21st century. Therefore, my prediction of a 1.20 degree Celsius rise from 1990 to 2100 is likely to be much more accurate.

Challenge Bahner!

Challenge Mark A Bahner to a bet on this prediction!