On the Record: Predictions

328. No substantial departure from the standard model of elementary particle physics will be discovered in experiments by the year 2015. `Substantial' departures include supersymmetry, extra dimensions of space-time, techni-color models of Higgs bosons, and compositeness of quarks and gluons but NOT additional Higgs bosons, families of particles or neutrino masses. Theoretical advances in understanding the hierarchy problem are not `substantial' experimental departures in this sense, but can lead to profound new understanding. 8 years
02007-02015 S. G RAJEEV

325. Science believes consciousness descends from matter; religion believes matter descends from consciousness. Both propositions will be discovered to false within 50 years. 50 years
02007-02057 Dan Gregerson

321. That the average level of innovation between 2025 and 2035 exceeds the average level of innovation of the past 5 years (2002-2007.) I suggest using metrics as determined and published by the US Dept of Commerce, Economics & Statistics Administration as developed by the
Measuring Innovation in the 21st Century Economy Advisory Committee (www.innovationmetric.gov) but am open to alternative suggestions. 23 years
02007-02030 Sean Park

317. No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050. 42 years
02007-02049 Joerg W Schwieder

312. Turkey will join the European Union and become a model for a Democratic Islamic State and lead the way for advancing relations between the Islamic world and "Western World" 11 years
02007-02018 Séamus P Dunne

310. By 2025, products of artistic activity will no longer been treated as autonomous, transcendent, intrinsically value-laden objects and artists will recognize themselves as operating within social, political, economic, and cultural frameworks which directly influence the conferred value of their artistic creations. 18 years
02007-02025 Sarah E

297. China will break apart by 2030 23 years
02007-02029 Chris Kakris

296. Until 2020 first effective and efficient meta entities (services, individuals, inventions) which are able to integrate and balance all main aspects/elements of civilization according to AQAL will be fully functional and consequently start to build functional civilization (absence of war, sustainable energy and information chains) 13 years
02007-02020 Lukas Atao

295. By 2020, historians will agree that the the start of the 21st century also marked the beginning of the "Second" or "New Renaissance." 13 years
02007-02020 Zeus Jones

289. Long Bets
RCH #2: By 2030

The Prediction:
The great contest of the 21st century ? the individual vs. society and the state ? will progress much past my 2020 Long Bets Prediction of effective computerized individual citizen profiling, with the full maturation of the nascent, but extremely promising studies of brain, mind and personality as revealed by the many different brain scanning devices now being intensively studied and developed.
These scans - and their related psychologic, psychiatric, and sociologic fields interpreting them and giving them function ? will gain great utility as the ultimate lie detectors. But they will go much beyond the simple lie detector in that they will reveal the workings of the mind in such a way that the mind will be made malleable and reshapable in manners currently thought inconceivable (see my Long Bets Prediction #3). 23 years
02007-02030 Robert C Hiemstra

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