Bet 266

Duration 4 years (02006-02010)

“There will be a quantum computer with over 100 qubits of processing capability sold either as a hardware system or whose use is made available as a commercial service by Dec 31, 2010”

brian wang


Wang's Argument

Dwave systems of vancouver is indicating that they are nearly ready to being offering the use of assisted adiabatic quantum computer. I have been tracking the recent research about quantum computers and superconducting quantum computers, trapped ion, electron spin and electron bubble quantum computers look very promising.

A Scalable Superconducting Architecture for Adiabatic Quantum Computation could scale to hundreds or even thousands of qubits

Ion trap quantum computers could scale to one thousand qubits

Electron bubble quantum computers could work up to 100 qubits or higher

78% of 700 IEEE fellow predicted that there would not be a commercial quantum computer within 50 years I am predicting a high degree of success within 5 years. My bet will probably require at least one of the leading quantum computer approaches to be highly successful. I understand that there is already a nuclear magnetic resonance quantum computer system being offered now for a about one million dollars. It has about 7 qubits. The 78% of IEEE fellows were already wrong when they made predictions which were published Sept 2006.

Successful Quantum computers will effect and accelerate the development of science at the nanoscale. Quantum computers will improve quantum simulation and various problems that rely upon the acceleration of fourier transforms.

I have made various other public technology predictions (at the site and newsletter from March 2006).

I describe supporting development, trends and analysis at my website

I think it is important that people have a more accurate understanding of the development and trends in the improvement of technology. Having an inaccurate pessimistic view of what will happen can lead to the misallocation of public funds and misguided public policy and poor business decisions.

Having an incorrect understanding of how relatively difficult it will be to achieve research and development success also leads to slower development of potentially high impact technology.

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