On the Record: Predictions
Discuss these predictions with the predictors themselves. If you decide you disagree, you can challenge a prediction and turn it into Long Bet.
NO.PREDICTIONDURATIONPREDICTOR
842.
Small Modular Reactors will produce less than 1% of global electricity in 2040.
20 years
02020-02040
Simon Holmes à Court
840.
American Social Security will remain intact through 2050.
30 years
02020-02050
Spiro P Gianniotis
839.
By the end of 2035, more electricity will be generated globally from wind and solar power combined than from coal.
16 years
02020-02035
Simon Holmes à Court
838.
Battery electric cars will outsell hydrogen fuel-cell cars by at least a factor of 10 globally every year from 2020 to 2040.
20 years
02020-02040
Simon Holmes à Court
837.
Over the two decades to 2040, the total quantity of CO₂ captured and sequestered from every coal power station on the planet will be less than that emitted from Australia's Eraring power station.
20 years
02020-02040
Simon Holmes à Court
836.
Fossil gas power generation will contribute less than 10% of power generated in Australia’s National Electricity Market on average through the 2020s.
10 years
02020-02029
Simon Holmes à Court
835.
No coal-fired power stations will be built in Australia's main grids between 2010 and 2030.
10 years
02020-02030
Simon Holmes à Court
834.
Nuclear power will provide 0% (rounded to the nearest whole number) of the power in Australia’s National Electricity Market in every year to 2040.
20 years
02020-02039
Simon Holmes à Court
832.
At least 50% of new car sales in Australia will be electric (EVs) in 2030 or earlier.
11 years
02020-02030
Simon Holmes à Court
828.
The first female president of the United States assumes the office by succeession due to circumstances directly caused by a global pandemic.
30 years
02020-02050
Mr. Tony McCoy
