On the Record: Predictions
Discuss these predictions with the predictors themselves. If you decide you disagree, you can challenge a prediction and turn it into Long Bet.
NO.PREDICTIONDURATIONPREDICTOR
856.
De Broglie-Bohm pilot-wave theory will overtake the Copenhagen Interpretation of quantum mechanics as the theory most accepted by physicists.
? years
02020-???
Ron Barlin
855.
By 2050, the United States will have passed an amendment abolishing patents and copyrights, OR there will be a patented medical product that will be considered responsible for 5 million American deaths.
29 years
02020-02050
Breck Yunits
851.
The last coal-powered station based on current technology, will close in Australia no later than 2035
15 years
02020-02035
Adam Clarke
850.
By the end of 02035, there will be at least one human living on Earth who has walked on Mars.
15 years
02020-02035
Benjamin G Thompson
849.
By 2030, There will be one person who is able to think a search function and return a result as if they Google’d something, with no physical hookup and no audible speech (fully cerebral thought) and less than 100ms latency. $1k bet.
10 years
02020-02030
Tyler G Cordell
847.
The United States National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) will fail.The failure of the program will create a financial crisis as trillions of dollars in coastal real estate will become suddenly too expensive to insure, resulting in a crash of major markets like Miami and Houston
15 years
02020-02035
Robert T Fleming
846.
Bitcoin will not become the world's single currency by 2030.
9 years
02020-02030
Saikat Chakrabarti
845.
By 2030, half of the UK adult population will be vegan.
9 years
02020-02030
Dale Vince
842.
Small Modular Reactors will produce less than 1% of global electricity in 2040.
20 years
02020-02040
Simon Holmes à Court
840.
American Social Security will remain intact through 2050.
30 years
02020-02050
Spiro P Gianniotis
