Bet 859

Duration 29 years (02021-02050)

“By the year 2050, the net contribution of controlled fusion power to the U.S. electrical grid will still be zero, or less.”

George Dyson


Dyson's Argument

For 65 years, controlled fusion power has remained a decade away. Despite concerted effort, even proof-of-principle break-even has yet to be achieved. So another 30 years without commercialized fusion power seems like a reasonable bet to me. (and I’ll be happy if proven wrong)

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