On the Record: Predictions

207. By 2150 faster than light propulsion theory will become realized, but not implemented, either through black holes, worm holes or space time warping. 145 years
02005-02150 Gary G Cassel

205. Google will face antitrust proceedings from the DOJ or a challenge to a merger or acquisition by the FTC. 4 years
02005-02009 Rudy Rouhana

204. In 2009, WinFX will be the dominant API for application development on all major PC platforms. 2 years
02005-02007 Carl Lumma

200. Within 5 years all power plants will be converted to full-spectrum laser-fired---all oil/gas/coal/nuclear power plants will be obsolete and retired. 4 years
02005-02010 Carla Hein

196. I predict that global warming denialists such as MIT professor Richard Lindzen will be shown to be wrong over the next 20 years as global warming continues. Specifically, I believe the scientific consensus that temperatures are likely to increase by .3 degrees Celsius over the next 20 is more accurate than the Lindzen/denialist position that temperatures are as likely to decrease as increase. Choosing a prediction that is halfway between the consensus and the denialist viewpoints, I predict that temperatures will increase by at least .15 degrees Celsius from 2005 to 2025. This bet is open to anyone who wants to accept it. 20 years
02005-02025 Brian A Schmidt

195. A March 2004 article stated: "More than 3.5 billion years after nature transformed non-living matter into living things, populating Earth with a cornucopia of animals and plants, scientists say they are finally ready to try their hand at creating life. . . It is a dream long pursued by scientists who now believe that it may be possible to create the first artificial unit of life in the next 5 to 10 years." See: http://www.deeperwants.com/cul1/homeworlds/journal/archives/002191.html

My prediction is that artificial life; i.e., life from non-life, will not be created in a laboratory. 16 years
02005-02020 Rodney T Small

194. The world per-capita GDP in the year 2000 was approximately $7,200. The world per-capita GDP (in year 2000 dollars) will exceed $13,000 in the year 2020, $31,000 in 2040, $130,000 in 2060, $1,000,000 in 2080, and $10,000,000 in 2100. 96 years
02005-02100 Mark A Bahner

181. I predict that my projections for methane atmospheric concentrations, industrial carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and atmospheric concentrations, and resultant lower tropospheric temperatures will be more accurate than those found in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) Third Assessment Report (TAR).

The following are my (MB) projections and the IPCC TAR projections for methane atmospheric concentrations (in ppb, worth 1 point), industrial CO2 emissions (in Gigatons as carbon, worth 1 point), CO2 atmospheric concentrations (in ppm, worth 1 point) and lower tropospheric temperature increases (in degrees Celsius relative to 1990, worth 3 points). The projections are for the years 2030, 2070, and 2100.

2030, MB: 1790, 8.8, 425, 0.36
2030, IPCC: 2060, 13.2, 438, 0.80

2070, MB: 1825, 7.0, 527, 0.82
2070, IPCC: 2300, 16.4, 610, 2.17

2100, MB: 1840, 4.0, 558, 1.20
2100, IPCC: 2450, 16.4, 720, 3.06

Lower tropospheric temperatures are as measured by satellite, in a 3-year average around the year in question (e.g. 2030 would be 2029, 2030, 20310. This bet is only open to members of the IPCC. 97 years
02005-02101 Mark A Bahner

180. Science fiction author Michael Crichton has predicted the world will warm by 0.81 degrees Celsius by the year 2100.

Thomas Wigley and Sarah Raper ("Interpretation of High Projections for Global-Mean Warming," Science Magazine, Volume 293, 20 July 2001) examined the projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the IPCC's Third Assessment Report (TAR).

Wigley and Raper concluded that the IPCC TAR projections were for a 50/50 chance of 3.06 degrees Celsius of warming from 1990 to 2100.

I predict that the actual warming of the lower troposphere (the atmosphere from roughly zero to 20,000 feet), as measured by satellites, will be closer to Michael Crichton's predicted value of 0.81 degrees Celsius, than the IPCC's value (via Wigley and Raper) of 3.06 degrees Celsius.

In other words, I predict that the actual warming of the lower troposphere from 1990 to 2100, as measured by satellites, will be less than 1.94 degrees Celsius.

Measurements should be done as a 3-year average centered around the year in question (i.e. 1989, 1990 and 1991, compared to 2099, 2100 and 2101).



My bet is only open to members of the IPCC. 97 years
02005-02101 Mark A Bahner

179. By 2010 more than 50 percent of books worldwide will be read on digital devices rather than in print form. 5 years
02005-02010 Vinton G Cerf

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