On the Record: Predictions

195. A March 2004 article stated: "More than 3.5 billion years after nature transformed non-living matter into living things, populating Earth with a cornucopia of animals and plants, scientists say they are finally ready to try their hand at creating life. . . It is a dream long pursued by scientists who now believe that it may be possible to create the first artificial unit of life in the next 5 to 10 years." See: http://www.deeperwants.com/cul1/homeworlds/journal/archives/002191.html

My prediction is that artificial life; i.e., life from non-life, will not be created in a laboratory. 16 years
02005-02020 Rodney T Small

194. The world per-capita GDP in the year 2000 was approximately $7,200. The world per-capita GDP (in year 2000 dollars) will exceed $13,000 in the year 2020, $31,000 in 2040, $130,000 in 2060, $1,000,000 in 2080, and $10,000,000 in 2100. 96 years
02005-02100 Mark A Bahner

181. I predict that my projections for methane atmospheric concentrations, industrial carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and atmospheric concentrations, and resultant lower tropospheric temperatures will be more accurate than those found in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) Third Assessment Report (TAR).

The following are my (MB) projections and the IPCC TAR projections for methane atmospheric concentrations (in ppb, worth 1 point), industrial CO2 emissions (in Gigatons as carbon, worth 1 point), CO2 atmospheric concentrations (in ppm, worth 1 point) and lower tropospheric temperature increases (in degrees Celsius relative to 1990, worth 3 points). The projections are for the years 2030, 2070, and 2100.

2030, MB: 1790, 8.8, 425, 0.36
2030, IPCC: 2060, 13.2, 438, 0.80

2070, MB: 1825, 7.0, 527, 0.82
2070, IPCC: 2300, 16.4, 610, 2.17

2100, MB: 1840, 4.0, 558, 1.20
2100, IPCC: 2450, 16.4, 720, 3.06

Lower tropospheric temperatures are as measured by satellite, in a 3-year average around the year in question (e.g. 2030 would be 2029, 2030, 20310. This bet is only open to members of the IPCC. 97 years
02005-02101 Mark A Bahner

180. Science fiction author Michael Crichton has predicted the world will warm by 0.81 degrees Celsius by the year 2100.

Thomas Wigley and Sarah Raper ("Interpretation of High Projections for Global-Mean Warming," Science Magazine, Volume 293, 20 July 2001) examined the projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the IPCC's Third Assessment Report (TAR).

Wigley and Raper concluded that the IPCC TAR projections were for a 50/50 chance of 3.06 degrees Celsius of warming from 1990 to 2100.

I predict that the actual warming of the lower troposphere (the atmosphere from roughly zero to 20,000 feet), as measured by satellites, will be closer to Michael Crichton's predicted value of 0.81 degrees Celsius, than the IPCC's value (via Wigley and Raper) of 3.06 degrees Celsius.

In other words, I predict that the actual warming of the lower troposphere from 1990 to 2100, as measured by satellites, will be less than 1.94 degrees Celsius.

Measurements should be done as a 3-year average centered around the year in question (i.e. 1989, 1990 and 1991, compared to 2099, 2100 and 2101).



My bet is only open to members of the IPCC. 97 years
02005-02101 Mark A Bahner

179. By 2010 more than 50 percent of books worldwide will be read on digital devices rather than in print form. 5 years
02005-02010 Vinton G Cerf

177. By 2010 more than 50 percent of books sold worldwide will be printed on demand at the point of sale in the form of library-quality paperbacks. 5 years
02005-02010 Vinton G Cerf

176. Because the Israelis and the Palestinians are fighting as much over the control of water resources as they are fighting over the control of land, waterbag technology will be given credit for being the major economic tool for implementing an interium economic Peace Agreement between Israel and the Palestinian Authority by the year 2007, as is described in the pages from the novel, WATER, WAR AND PEACE, that is featured on the website: www.waterbag.com. 5 years
02004-02009 Terry G Spragg

175. Within two years, at least two or more waterbags, connected by the world's strongest zipper into a train, carrying total of at least one and one half million gallons of fresh water, will be successfully towed from Washington State, under the Golden Gate Bridge into San Francisco Bay, and then south to Santa Monica Bay in Los Angeles. In five years there will be at least one hundred waterbags operating in various locations around the world, connected into trains of two waterbags or more, each train delivering an average of at least five milion gallons of water per delivery from loading points to receiving points throughout the world. 2 years
02004-02006 Terry G Spragg

173. The concept of time as a linear dimension will be replaced by one of time as a polarity between content and context. 21 years
02004-02025 John B Merryman

172. A machine capable of passing the Turing Test will be made in 2075 using only hardware that was available in 2005. 71 years
02004-02075 Kevin Kelly

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