On the Record: Bets

848. Between 2021 and the end of 2030, annual fossil fuel emissions (excluding carbonation) will not exceed annual fossil fuel emissions (excluding carbonation) from 2019. 10 years
02020-02030 $2,000
$1,000 Ted Nordhaus Ken Caldeira

841. Nuclear energy will decline as a proportion of global electricity generation over the 2020s. 9 years
02020-02029 $400
$200 Simon Holmes à Court James B Kell

833. Renewable Energy will comprise at least 50% of the energy in Australia’s National Electricity Market no later than the end of 2030. 11 years
02020-02030 $1,000
$500 Simon Holmes à Court Jonathan A Sutanto

829. Over a ten-year period commencing on July 1, 2020, and ending on June 30, 2030, a portfolio of index funds invested broadly in US and International equities will outperform a portfolio managed by a sophisticated individual investor selecting stocks and funds. 10 years
02020-02030 $10,000
$5,000 Mitch Tuchman - Rebalance, LLC Jeff S. Heller

780. Slaughterhouses will be banned in the United Kingdom by 2050. 31 years
02019-02050 $400
$200 Dean Mullen Jeff T Kaufman

768. Berkshire Hathaway’s total shareholder return including dividends and possible spin-offs will be greater than the S&P 500 total return including dividends over the 20 years period of May 3rd, 2019 to May 3rd, 2039. 20 years
02018-02038 $408
$204 Zach S Greenwald Ansgar J Brenninkmeijer

765. By Dec 31st 2020, fewer than 30% of Americans with home broadband will be on packages that are significantly biased to specified sites (i.e. non-net-neutrality packages - for clarity, we define these as packages that throttle all sites other than a named list to < 10Mbps) 3 years
02018-02021 $400
$200 Will Critchlow Mike Bestvina

764. The Equal Rights Amendment to the U.S. Constitution will be passed by the end of 2023. 5 years
02018-02023 $500
$250 Bruce E Watson Steve M Midgley

763. There will be at least one 2022 FIFA World Cup match which will have more people watching live via virtual reality than people watching it in person. 5 years
02018-02023 $500
$250 S A John Palmer

753. By the end of 2026, there will be less than 2 active commercial wind tunnels in the US 9 years
02018-02026 $400
$200 Andre Wegner Spencer N Wright