On the Record: Bets

829. Over a ten-year period commencing on July 1, 2020, and ending on June 30, 2030, a portfolio of index funds invested broadly in US and International equities will outperform a portfolio managed by a sophisticated individual investor selecting stocks and funds. 10 years
02020-02030 $10,000
$5,000 Mitch Tuchman - Rebalance, LLC Jeff S. Heller

780. Slaughterhouses will be banned in the United Kingdom by 2050. 31 years
02019-02050 $400
$200 Dean Mullen Jeff T Kaufman

768. Berkshire Hathaway’s total shareholder return including dividends and possible spin-offs will be greater than the S&P 500 total return including dividends over the 20 years period of May 3rd, 2019 to May 3rd, 2039. 20 years
02018-02038 $408
$204 Zach S Greenwald Ansgar J Brenninkmeijer

765. By Dec 31st 2020, fewer than 30% of Americans with home broadband will be on packages that are significantly biased to specified sites (i.e. non-net-neutrality packages - for clarity, we define these as packages that throttle all sites other than a named list to < 10Mbps) 3 years
02018-02021 $400
$200 Will Critchlow Mike Bestvina

764. The Equal Rights Amendment to the U.S. Constitution will be passed by the end of 2023. 5 years
02018-02023 $500
$250 Bruce E Watson Steve M Midgley

763. There will be at least one 2022 FIFA World Cup match which will have more people watching live via virtual reality than people watching it in person. 5 years
02018-02023 $500
$250 John Smith John Palmer

753. By the end of 2026, there will be less than 2 active commercial wind tunnels in the US 9 years
02018-02026 $400
$200 Andre Wegner Spencer N Wright

751. The annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 02025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, will be 2 percent or above. 8 years
02018-02026 $400
$200 Robert D Atkinson Alberto Forchielli

750. Clinicians and neuroscientists will develop well validated brain-activity measurement technologies establishing with a high degree of certainty whether individual human subjects, such as anesthetized and neurological patients, are, at that moment, conscious. 11 years
02018-02028 $400
$200 Christof - Koch Per T Snaprud

749. “The​ ​US​ ​unemployment​ ​rate,​ ​as​ ​determined​ ​by​ ​the​ ​Bureau​ ​of​ ​Labor​ ​Statistics,​ ​will be lower​ ​than​ ​8​ ​percent​ ​for​ ​the​ ​year​ ​2035,​ ​unless​ ​the​ ​The​ ​National​ ​Bureau​ ​of Economic​ ​Research​ ​determines​ ​that​ ​any​ ​quarter​ ​in​ ​2035​ ​was​ ​in​ ​a​ ​recession,​ ​in which​ ​case​ ​the​ ​reference​ ​year​ ​will​ ​be​ ​the​ ​12​ ​months​ ​prior​ ​to​ ​the​ ​beginning​ ​of​ ​the recession.” 18 years
02017-02035 $400
$200 Robert D Atkinson Calum Chace