Over a ten-year period commencing on July 1, 2020, and ending on June 30, 2030, a portfolio of index funds invested broadly in US and International equities will outperform a portfolio managed by a sophisticated individual investor selecting stocks and funds.
$5,000 Mitch Tuchman - Rebalance, LLC Jeff S. Heller
Slaughterhouses will be banned in the United Kingdom by 2050.
$200 Dean Mullen Jeff T Kaufman
Berkshire Hathaway’s total shareholder return including dividends and possible spin-offs will be greater than the S&P 500 total return including dividends over the 20 years period of May 3rd, 2019 to May 3rd, 2039.
$204 Zach S Greenwald Ansgar J Brenninkmeijer
By Dec 31st 2020, fewer than 30% of Americans with home broadband will be on packages that are significantly biased to specified sites (i.e. non-net-neutrality packages - for clarity, we define these as packages that throttle all sites other than a named list to < 10Mbps)
$200 Will Critchlow Mike Bestvina
The Equal Rights Amendment to the U.S. Constitution will be passed by the end of 2023.
$250 Bruce E Watson Steve M Midgley
There will be at least one 2022 FIFA World Cup match which will have more people watching live via virtual reality than people watching it in person.
$250 John Smith John Palmer
By the end of 2026, there will be less than 2 active commercial wind tunnels in the US
$200 Andre Wegner Spencer N Wright
The annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 02025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, will be 2 percent or above.
$200 Robert D Atkinson Alberto Forchielli
Clinicians and neuroscientists will develop well validated brain-activity measurement technologies establishing with a high degree of certainty whether individual human subjects, such as anesthetized and neurological patients, are, at that moment, conscious.
$200 Christof - Koch Per T Snaprud
“The US unemployment rate, as determined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, will be lower than 8 percent for the year 2035, unless the The National Bureau of Economic Research determines that any quarter in 2035 was in a recession, in which case the reference year will be the 12 months prior to the beginning of the recession.”
$200 Robert D Atkinson Calum Chace