These bets are set in stone until they reach judgement. Read the arguments written in favor of each position and discuss the bets with the bettors themselves and the rest of the Long Bets community.
NO.PREDICTIONDURATIONSTAKESPREDICTORCHALLENGER
829.
Over a ten-year period commencing on July 1, 2020, and ending on June 30, 2030, a portfolio of index funds invested broadly in US and International equities will outperform a portfolio managed by a sophisticated individual investor selecting stocks and funds.
10 years
02020-02030
$10,000
$5,000
Mitch Tuchman - Rebalance, LLC
Jeff S. Heller
780.
Slaughterhouses will be banned in the United Kingdom by 2050.
31 years
02019-02050
$400
$200
Dean Mullen
Jeff T Kaufman
768.
Berkshire Hathaway’s total shareholder return including dividends and possible spin-offs will be greater than the S&P 500 total return including dividends over the 20 years period of May 3rd, 2019 to May 3rd, 2039.
20 years
02018-02038
$408
$204
Zach S Greenwald
Ansgar J Brenninkmeijer
765.
By Dec 31st 2020, fewer than 30% of Americans with home broadband will be on packages that are significantly biased to specified sites (i.e. non-net-neutrality packages - for clarity, we define these as packages that throttle all sites other than a named list to < 10Mbps)
3 years
02018-02021
$400
$200
Will Critchlow
Mike Bestvina
764.
The Equal Rights Amendment to the U.S. Constitution will be passed by the end of 2023.
5 years
02018-02023
$500
$250
Bruce E Watson
Steve M Midgley
763.
There will be at least one 2022 FIFA World Cup match which will have more people watching live via virtual reality than people watching it in person.
5 years
02018-02023
$500
$250
S A
John Palmer
753.
By the end of 2026, there will be less than 2 active commercial wind tunnels in the US
9 years
02018-02026
$400
$200
Andre Wegner
Spencer N Wright
751.
The annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 02025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, will be 2 percent or above.
8 years
02018-02026
$400
$200
Robert D Atkinson
Alberto Forchielli
750.
Clinicians and neuroscientists will develop well validated brain-activity measurement technologies establishing with a high degree of certainty whether individual human subjects, such as anesthetized and neurological patients, are, at that moment, conscious.
11 years
02018-02028
$400
$200
Christof - Koch
Per T Snaprud
749.
“The US unemployment rate, as determined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, will be lower than 8 percent for the year 2035, unless the The National Bureau of Economic Research determines that any quarter in 2035 was in a recession, in which case the reference year will be the 12 months prior to the beginning of the recession.”
18 years
02017-02035
$400
$200
Robert D Atkinson
Calum Chace