Bet 858

Duration 19 years (02021-02039)

“No Republican will be President of the USA before December 30, 2039.” Detailed Terms »

Jason W Galbraith


will go to Avanza Network if de la Maza wins,
or Care Net of Las Cruces if Galbraith wins.

De la Maza's Argument

- The Republican Party has collapsed, has no plan to put itself back together again, and has become a minority party representing mostly rural voters. - No Republican has won the popular vote for President in the 21st century. - Democrats will pass a raft of laws, from expanding the vote to a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, that will give them a near permanent advantage. - The demographic shift that Democrats have been talking about for 30+ years is finally happening in a way that will prove decisive. - Generation Z voters and Millennials are far more progressive because of their life histories (9/11, GFC, Covid) in a way that will not be changed by growing older.

Galbraith's Argument

De la Maza and I probably have equal views as to the merits of the Republican Party, but we underestimate them at our own peril. His statement that no Republican has won the popular vote in the 21st century ignores the 2004 victory of George W. Bush. Bush profited from 9/11 (which if it happened today Republicans would blame on liberals and vice versa).

The most important reason de la Maza is wrong is that many of Biden's voters remain unwilling to vote for a woman for President. It is almost certain that Kamala Harris will be the Democratic nominee in 2024.

If Joe Biden (and/or Democratic ex-Presidents) are impeached following a Republican takeover of the House of Representatives in 2022 (a virtual certainty based on the experience of this century up to now), running Harris would be the smart move, but would probably not be enough to overcome the galvanizing effect of the impeachment itself on the Republican base. Impeachment has ALWAYS been followed by the victory of the impeaching party in the next Presidential election (leading to its possibly being discarded/rejected by both parties if it fails to yield this reward at any point in the future).

The real question is whether elections for any Federal offices will continue after the Republicans do win. Their voters are, for the most part, convinced that elections are simply too easy for liberals to steal.

Detailed Terms

If at any point before December 30, 2039, a member of the Republican Party holds the Office of President of the United States, the Predictor loses the bet. If the Republican Party changes its name, or a new conservative party splinters off that then wins the White House, the Predictor will win the bet.