Bet 883

Duration 17 years (02021-02038)

“A GMST annual average anomaly value above the 1850-1899 baseline will be published in the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature series as 2.0C or higher on or before the 2037 value (published in 2038).”

PREDICTOR
John Mitchell

CHALLENGER
Unchallenged

Mitchell's Argument

Pattern effect warming has been largely absent in the historic surface temperature record. This is due to the impacts of anthropogenic aerosols and their forcing impacts on Pacific Ocean surface temperatures and their associated surface wind patterns. This 'third aerosol forcing parameter' has not yet been strongly identified by climate sciences even though it has suppressed surface warming through the modern period and is only now being evidenced as SE Asia continues to reduce high temperature stack emissions of SOx. By (around) 2029 the Pacific Decadal Oscillation will exist in a nearly permanent positive state, causing much higher regional forcing and a doubling of the historic GMST decadal warming trend.

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