Bet 852

Duration 15 years (02020-02035)

“By 2035 there will be at least 10 people living on Mars for a period of more than 2 months.” Detailed Terms »

Andrew A Burchill

Thomas A Davis


will go to Autism Spectrum Australia if Burchill wins,
or Autism Spectrum Australia if Davis wins.

Burchill's Argument

The great technological stagnation is coming to an end and we are on the cusp of a great leap forward in space exploration.

Davis's Argument

It will take too much trial and error to happen before then.

15 years from now pretty much assumes nothing is going to go wrong.

Detailed Terms

The Bet will be decided in Andrew's favor if the same ten or more people have lived on the surface of Mars concurrently for two Earth months by December 31st 2035. An earth month is defined as thirty days, and orbital and transit time does not count towards the 2 months.