The great technological stagnation is coming to an end and we are on the cusp of a great leap forward in space exploration.
It will take too much trial and error to happen before then.
15 years from now pretty much assumes nothing is going to go wrong.
The Bet will be decided in Andrew's favor if the same ten or more people have lived on the surface of Mars concurrently for two Earth months by December 31st 2035. An earth month is defined as thirty days, and orbital and transit time does not count towards the 2 months.