Bet 853

Duration 5 years (02020-02025)

“A bitcoin will be worth less than $1000US by the end of 2025.” Detailed Terms »

PREDICTOR
Josh M Levine

CHALLENGER
Thomas R Sohmers

STAKES $2,000

will go to The Long Now Foundation if Levine wins,
or Electronic Frontier Foundation if Sohmers wins.

Levine's Argument

Bitcoin showcases many interesting technologies and ideas, but will ultimately fail as a currency and value store because it fundamentally creates a liability without a creditor.

Sohmers's Argument

Bitcoin's scarcity and extremely large network effects around protecting and distributing its blockchain provide enough usefulness as a store of value to make 1 out of 21 million total BTC (in reality less due to lost coins) of real utility value.

Detailed Terms

If at any point on December 31, 2025, Bitcoin is worth less than $1000 USD according to Coinbase, the Predictor wins.