On the Record: Predictions

Discuss these predictions with the predictors themselves. If you decide you disagree, you can challenge a prediction and turn it into Long Bet.

How Betting Works ยป

NO.PREDICTIONDURATIONPREDICTOR

863. By January first, 2024, the price of Bitcoin, as quoted in the Wall Street Journal, will be below 2500 USD. 3 years
02021-02024
Tim Bray

862. There will be no serious long-term adverse effects from mass mRNA vaccination against COVID-19. 5 years
02021-02026
Gabriel D Dimitrov

861. By 1 March 2023, a territorial coup will be attempted by Boko Haram quasi-agents in the South of Nigeria, such that land rights of Southern Nigerians will be overwhelmed and the Fulani people will look to settle in the area. 2 years
02021-02023
Dieter O Scheler

860. Quantum computing & quantum networks will allow us to communicate with alternate timelines/dimensions 679 years
02021-02700
Daniel Khodarahmi

859. By the year 2050, the net contribution of controlled fusion power to the U.S. electrical grid will still be zero, or less. 29 years
02021-02050
George Dyson

857. At the end of 2030, there will be more mRNA-based mAbs in clinical trials than those of protein-based mAbs. 10 years
02021-02030
Lizhong He

856. De Broglie-Bohm pilot-wave theory will overtake the Copenhagen Interpretation of quantum mechanics as the theory most accepted by physicists. ? years
02020-???
Ron Barlin

855. By 2050, the United States will have passed an amendment abolishing patents and copyrights, OR there will be a patented medical product that will be considered responsible for 5 million American deaths. 29 years
02020-02050
Breck Yunits

851. The last coal-powered station based on current technology, will close in Australia no later than 2035 15 years
02020-02035
Adam Clarke

850. By the end of 02035, there will be at least one human living on Earth who has walked on Mars. 15 years
02020-02035
Benjamin G Thompson

more

Looking for predictions that challengers have already turned into bets? See Bets on the Record!