On the Record: Predictions
Discuss these predictions with the predictors themselves. If you decide you disagree, you can challenge a prediction and turn it into Long Bet.
NO.PREDICTIONDURATIONPREDICTOR
859.
By the year 2050, the net contribution of controlled fusion power to the U.S. electrical grid will still be zero, or less.
29 years
02021-02050
George Dyson
857.
At the end of 2030, there will be more mRNA-based mAbs in clinical trials than those of protein-based mAbs.
10 years
02021-02030
Lizhong He
856.
De Broglie-Bohm pilot-wave theory will overtake the Copenhagen Interpretation of quantum mechanics as the theory most accepted by physicists.
? years
02020-???
Ron Barlin
855.
By 2050, the United States will have passed an amendment abolishing patents and copyrights, OR there will be a patented medical product that will be considered responsible for 5 million American deaths.
29 years
02020-02050
Breck Yunits
851.
The last coal-powered station based on current technology, will close in Australia no later than 2035
15 years
02020-02035
Adam Clarke
850.
By the end of 02035, there will be at least one human living on Earth who has walked on Mars.
15 years
02020-02035
Benjamin G Thompson
849.
By 2030, There will be one person who is able to think a search function and return a result as if they Google’d something, with no physical hookup and no audible speech (fully cerebral thought) and less than 100ms latency. $1k bet.
10 years
02020-02030
Tyler G Cordell
847.
The United States National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) will fail.The failure of the program will create a financial crisis as trillions of dollars in coastal real estate will become suddenly too expensive to insure, resulting in a crash of major markets like Miami and Houston
15 years
02020-02035
Robert T Fleming
846.
Bitcoin will not become the world's single currency by 2030.
9 years
02020-02030
Saikat Chakrabarti
845.
By 2030, half of the UK adult population will be vegan.
9 years
02020-02030
Dale Vince
