Bet 780

Duration 31 years (02019-02050)

“Slaughterhouses will be banned in the United Kingdom by 2050.” Detailed Terms »

Dean Mullen

Jeff T Kaufman


will go to Animal Equality if Mullen wins,
or Centre for Effective Altruism if Kaufman wins.

Mullen's Argument

Progression in animal rights and changes in societal attitudes will lead to dramatic changes in human perspectives of and the treatment of non-human animals. This I believe will culminate in slaughterhouses being made illegal in many nations by the middle of this century and I believe the United Kingdom will be among those countries.

Kaufman's Argument

Slaughterhouses will continue to be legal in the UK through 2050.

No country has banned slaughterhouses yet, and meat consumption is very popular. Going from "legal and common" to "completely banned" in thirty years seems very optimistic to me.

Detailed Terms

1. The bet is to whether slaughterhouses will be prohibited in the
United Kingdom by 2050.

2. A slaughterhouse is any facility, regardless of scale, that is used
to slaughter animals for the benefit of humans. This includes
processing the animals into food or clothing, or as a byproduct of
another industry that uses animals such as the dairy industry. This
does not include euthanizing animals in shelter facilities, since this
is done for the benefit of the euthanized animals. This also does not
include hunting, since the animals are killed outside of any facility.

3. The legislation must be passed and in effect by January 1st, 2050
in the United Kingdom. If the United Kingdom no longer exists, then
the relevant region will be the country that includes the largest land
area that was in the United Kingdom on 2019-01-01.