Bet 764
Duration 5 years (02018-02023)
PREDICTOR
Bruce E Watson
CHALLENGER
Steve M Midgley
will go to Oxfam International if Watson wins,
or Planned Parenthood if Midgley wins.
The 1970s backlash that stopped the ERA’s ratification just a few states short is ancient history. A rising wave of female politicians, coupled with a more progressive electorate responding to the current political miasma, will propel the ERA to ratification. 2023 is a key date because it comes shortly after the centennial of women’s suffrage and 100 years after the ERA was first submitted to Congress.
As much as I might like Watson's prediction to come to pass, it seems highly unlikely given the current political dysfunction across the board at the US Federal level. I'm saddened to take the counter argument, but it seems like the likely outcome.
If any Constitutional Amendment is passed that is designed to explicitly "guarantee equal legal rights for all American citizens regardless of sex", Bruce would win.
