Bet 841

Duration 9 years (02020-02029)

“Nuclear energy will decline as a proportion of global electricity generation over the 2020s.”


Holmes à Court's Argument

According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, nuclear energy provided 10.4% of global electricity generation in 2019. In 2009 the proportion was 13.3% and in 1999 it was 16.9%, having peaked at 17.5% in 1996. At the start of the 2020s nuclear energy is struggling to compete against other energy sources, especially renewable energy. While approximately 50 nuclear power units are under construction in early 2020, these capacity additions will be partially offset by closures as much of the global fleet approaches end of design life. Any net capacity increase over the decade, if achieved, will be modest, growing at a slower pace than global electricity demand. The specific prediction is that the proportion of global electricity generation provided by nuclear in 2029 will be below the level achieved in 2019, using data from BP's Statistical Review of World Energy or equivalent.

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