On the Record: Bets

751. The annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 02025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, will be 2 percent or above. 8 years
02018-02026 $400
$200 Robert D Atkinson Alberto Forchielli

750. Clinicians and neuroscientists will develop well validated brain-activity measurement technologies establishing with a high degree of certainty whether individual human subjects, such as anesthetized and neurological patients, are, at that moment, conscious. 11 years
02018-02028 $400
$200 Christof - Koch Per T Snaprud

749. “The​ ​US​ ​unemployment​ ​rate,​ ​as​ ​determined​ ​by​ ​the​ ​Bureau​ ​of​ ​Labor​ ​Statistics,​ ​will be lower​ ​than​ ​8​ ​percent​ ​for​ ​the​ ​year​ ​2035,​ ​unless​ ​the​ ​The​ ​National​ ​Bureau​ ​of Economic​ ​Research​ ​determines​ ​that​ ​any​ ​quarter​ ​in​ ​2035​ ​was​ ​in​ ​a​ ​recession,​ ​in which​ ​case​ ​the​ ​reference​ ​year​ ​will​ ​be​ ​the​ ​12​ ​months​ ​prior​ ​to​ ​the​ ​beginning​ ​of​ ​the recession.” 18 years
02017-02035 $400
$200 Robert D Atkinson Calum Chace

735. On or before December 31, 2029, Berkshire Hathaway A shares (BRK.A), shall trade at no less than one million dollars ($1,000,000) per A equivalent share 13 years
02017-02029 $400
$200 Todd T Covault D Joshi

726. The amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 will be greater than the amount consumed in 2015. 21 years
02015-02036 $400
$200 Joseph F. Huttner Stephen W Snow

712. Driverless cars will be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024. Trips may be point to point outside of the city center with no requirement for any passenger to take over manual control of the vehicle. 8 years
02016-02024 $500
$250 Jeff McAulay Stephen Zoepf

704. During the 500 years between 02015 and 02515, the Farsight Fund will return much less than what it has historically. Past performance would suggest 3-4% real (after inflation) annual return on investment, but it will be 2% or less. 500 years
02015-02515 $1,000
$500 Sandra j Ewen Sandra Ewen

687. The June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, will be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent. 10 years
02015-02025 $500
$250 Robert D Atkinson Jason W Galbraith

676. By 2040, the percentage of U.S. citizens of traditional college age who are attending postsecondary educational institutions in the United States will drop at least 50% from the level reported for the 2011/2012 academic year. 27 years
02014-02040 $600
$300 Brant von Goble John C Leven

601. The original URL for this prediction (www.longbets.org/601) will no longer be available in eleven years. 11 years
02011-02022 $1,000
$500 Jeremy Keith Matthew A Haughey