On the Record: Predictions
Discuss these predictions with the predictors themselves. If you decide you disagree, you can challenge a prediction and turn it into Long Bet.
NO.PREDICTIONDURATIONPREDICTOR
907.
Within the next 25 years the United States of America will no longer consist of 50 States
2 years
02022-02024
Jeremy P Day
906.
In 2030, the share of world energy produced by solar will be < 2%, conditional on real gross world product (in 2015 USD at market exchange rates) being not less than $118 trillion. End date as soon as reputable data (World Bank, IEA, BP etc) for 2030 are available.
? years
02022-???
Carl Lumma
905.
By 2080, a mathematician would win the Fields Medal before the age of 22, thus becoming the first undergraduate winner of the Fields Medal.
59 years
02022-02081
Shengtong Zhang
904.
The manufacturing of new internal combustion engine automobiles will be illegal, or there will be a law requiring that their manufacture cease by some specified date in the future everywhere in the US.
32 years
02022-02054
Bay Futures Class
903.
Lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD) will no longer be a U.S. Federal schedule 1 drug and in 15 states it will be legal for medicinal and/or recreational use.
34 years
02022-02056
Bay Futures Class
902.
Humans will not find features of an exoplanet or other object >1 light-year away which, according to a majority of astrobiologists, is convincing evidence of life, intelligence, or technology; nor will we detect any other electromagnetic signal satisfying the same requirement.
22 years
02022-02044
Karl Coryat
901.
The Department of Defense will not publicly release unambiguous evidence, recorded from multiple sensors, of objects in Earth's atmosphere exhibiting >20G acceleration, OR >100km/h subsurface travel, OR anti-gravity, OR FTL/nonlocal translation, OR extraterrestrial intelligence.
10 years
02022-02032
Karl Coryat
900.
The International Criminal Court will become totally independent of the Security Council and may even gain the ability to override the vetoes of the latter.
11 years
02022-02033
Jason W Galbraith
898.
Canada's terrifying state-sponsored euthanasia program as described in The Spectator by Yuan Yi Zhu in the article below will have spread to become policy in at least 4 of the G20 by the end of 2035 as an inevitable consequence of markets viewing people as a resource.
14 years
02022-02035
Charles W D Orme
897.
By 2032, decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) and other digitally-constituted organizations will organize more assets and production than traditional, legally-constituted corporations in the United States.
10 years
02022-02032
Joshua Z Tan
