On the Record: Predictions
Discuss these predictions with the predictors themselves. If you decide you disagree, you can challenge a prediction and turn it into Long Bet.
NO.PREDICTIONDURATIONPREDICTOR
911.
Alan Finkel at the Sydney Energy Forum July 2022 predicted: by 2032 90% of new passenger car sales in the OECD will be electric with an average range of 1000 km or more and there will be at least 40 million tonnes per annum of demand for clean hydrogen.
10 years
02022-02032
Alan Finkel
910.
I predict that Canada will be a failed state by 02042.
20 years
02022-02042
Jordan C Lewans
909.
In 5 years, a bitcoin will be worth less than $100US.
5 years
02022-02027
Boran A Akin
908.
Fewer that 25% of states with Roe v. Wade anti-abortion trigger bans will implement any meaningful improvements for child-related care or support within 3 years.
3 years
02022-02025
Joseph A Miller
907.
Within the next 25 years the United States of America will no longer consist of 50 States
2 years
02022-02024
Jeremy P Day
906.
In 2030, the share of world energy produced by solar will be < 2%, conditional on real gross world product (in 2015 USD at market exchange rates) being not less than $118 trillion. End date as soon as reputable data (World Bank, IEA, BP etc) for 2030 are available.
? years
02022-???
Carl Lumma
905.
By 2080, a mathematician would win the Fields Medal before the age of 22, thus becoming the first undergraduate winner of the Fields Medal.
59 years
02022-02081
Shengtong Zhang
904.
The manufacturing of new internal combustion engine automobiles will be illegal, or there will be a law requiring that their manufacture cease by some specified date in the future everywhere in the US.
32 years
02022-02054
Bay Futures Class
903.
Lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD) will no longer be a U.S. Federal schedule 1 drug and in 15 states it will be legal for medicinal and/or recreational use.
34 years
02022-02056
Bay Futures Class
902.
Humans will not find features of an exoplanet or other object >1 light-year away which, according to a majority of astrobiologists, is convincing evidence of life, intelligence, or technology; nor will we detect any other electromagnetic signal satisfying the same requirement.
22 years
02022-02044
Karl Coryat
