Bet 916

Duration 9 years (02022-02031)

“The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will report more than 4,951,360 jobs in the transport and warehousing sector for July 2030.”

Bill Murphy


Murphy's Argument

As of August 2022, BLS is projecting 6,189,200 jobs in transport and warehousing in 2030. This prediction asserts that BLS has not overestimated the number of transport and warehousing jobs by 20%. There are several factors which might reduce employment in this sector, such as self-driving trucks and warehouse robots, deglobalization and decrease in global shipping volumes, or secular economic decline. While these are long-term concerns for the industry, they will not manifest in this time span: it will not be feasible to automate a large number of transport and warehousing jobs by 2030, and global shipping volumes will remain high enough to continue job growth.

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