Bet 925

Duration ? years (02022-???)

“Poland will synchronize its first nuclear power plant BEFORE Germany exits coal power.”

Adam Błażowski


Błażowski's Argument

The odds of this prediction are against the official government positions:

Poland 2033:

Germany 2030:

Nonetheless it is reasonable to assume that German coal phaseout will take much more time then what politicians promise. One of the reasons is the #atomausstieg, nuclear phase out that was prioritized over coal phaseout in Germany, thus reducing available dispatch able power in Germany. While alternative solutions remain on the table they are neither low carbon nor cheap to implement.

On the other hand Poland remains focused on deployment of low carbon nuclear power, which has in the past suffered from limited social license and delays.

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