Bet 934

Duration 8 years (02023-02030)

“The market share of new electric light duty vehicles (per the US EIA definition) sold in the US will exceed 17% (>17% EV + PHEV market share) by the end of 2030.”

Ryan D McGlothlin


McGlothlin's Argument

The US EIA published its Annual Energy Outlook 2023 on March 16, 2023. In the AEO is a projection for the adoption of EVs in the US that I believe is too slow. We saw China hit a 22% market share for EVs in 2022, and Europe a 12% share. The US has lagged in adoption, but looks poised for a fast catch-up given a significant increase in new EV models (especially pickups and SUVs), increased focus on solving long-distance charging issues for non-Tesla EVs and the the incentives provided by the Inflation Reduction Act. EVs provide a superior driving experience and ultimately will be cheaper to both maintain and *build* than ICE vehicles (even without government incentive). These cost and quality advantages will sway ever more buyers who may be currently nervous about adopting a new technology with such a large price tag and which is so integral to daily life.

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