Bet 751

Duration 8 years (02018-02026)

“The annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 02025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, will be 2 percent or above.” Detailed Terms »

Robert D Atkinson

Alberto Forchielli


will go to Davidson Institute for Talent Development if Atkinson wins,
or Hoedspruit Endangered Species Center if Forchielli wins.

Atkinson's Argument

U.S. productivity growth is at its lowest rate, perhaps since the founding of the Republic. Some experts, like Robert Gordon, argue that this will be the new new norm, arguing that all the "low hanging fruit has been picked." Rather, a new wave of innovations, grounded in areas such as new materials, robotics and AI, are likely to finally get to the "s-curve" take-off point within the next 5 to 10 years, thereby powering organizations to boost labor productivity (eg., produce more per hour of labor)

Forchielli's Argument

We have not seen 3% productivity growth in USA for many years. Predicting such growth is highly speculative at this point since there are way too many uncertainties. Moreover assuming such growth entails large investment amounts not just in R&D but also downstream. I fear US economy will see itself constrained by China worldwide expansion. Protectionist tendencies and the emergence of formidable Chinese competitors will constrain the development of US companies making it more difficult to achieve high productivity enhancements. In other words, the world economic context will change to such a degree that we will have to revise all our economic and business hypothesis derived from past experiences and extrapolated from futuristic assumptions embedded in history.

Detailed Terms

The Bureau of Labor Statistics' "Private Nonfarm Business Sector Productivity Growth" in 02025 must be 2% or greater for the predictor to win.