Bet 749

Duration 18 years (02017-02035)

““The​ ​US​ ​unemployment​ ​rate,​ ​as​ ​determined​ ​by​ ​the​ ​Bureau​ ​of​ ​Labor​ ​Statistics,​ ​will be lower​ ​than​ ​8​ ​percent​ ​for​ ​the​ ​year​ ​2035,​ ​unless​ ​the​ ​The​ ​National​ ​Bureau​ ​of Economic​ ​Research​ ​determines​ ​that​ ​any​ ​quarter​ ​in​ ​2035​ ​was​ ​in​ ​a​ ​recession,​ ​in which​ ​case​ ​the​ ​reference​ ​year​ ​will​ ​be​ ​the​ ​12​ ​months​ ​prior​ ​to​ ​the​ ​beginning​ ​of​ ​the recession.”” Detailed Terms »

Robert D Atkinson

Calum Chace


will go to Davidson Institute if Atkinson wins,
or SENS Research Foundation if Chace wins.

Atkinson's Argument

With the rise of AI and robotics many now claim that these technologies will improve exponentially and in so doing destroy tens of millions of jobs, leading to mass unemployment and the need for Universal Basic Income. I argue that these technologies are no different than past technology waves and to the extent they boost productivity that will create offsetting spending and investment, leading to offsetting job creation, with no appreciable increase in joblessness.

Chace's Argument

AI and robotics are different to past technology waves. Past rounds of automation have mostly been mechanisation; now we will see cognitive automation. Machines can already drive cars better than humans, and their story is just beginning: they will increasingly do many of the tasks we do in our jobs cheaper, better and faster than we can. Unlike us, they are improving at an exponential rate, so that in ten years they will be 128 times more powerful, in 20 years 8,000 times, and in 30 years (if the exponential growth holds that long) a million times. We are unlikely to see the full impact of technological unemployment by 2035, but it should be appreciable. Our job now, of course, is to make sure that an economy which is post-jobs for many or most people is a great economy, and that everyone thrives. The way to do that may well be the Star Trek economy.

Detailed Terms

The year's unemployment rate shall be calculated by taking the average of the sum of the monthly unemployment rates given by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.