Mark A Bahner (markbahner)
Environmental engineer
Bets & Predictions that Bahners' placed
| No. | Bet | Duration | Stakes | Predictor | Challenger |
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| 180. |
Science fiction author Michael Crichton has predicted the world will warm by 0.81 degrees Celsius by the year 2100.
Thomas Wigley and Sarah Raper ("Interpretation of High Projections for Global-Mean Warming," Science Magazine, Volume 293, 20 July 2001) examined the projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the IPCC's Third Assessment Report (TAR).
Wigley and Raper concluded that the IPCC TAR projections were for a 50/50 chance of 3.06 degrees Celsius of warming from 1990 to 2100.
I predict that the actual warming of the lower troposphere (the atmosphere from roughly zero to 20,000 feet), as measured by satellites, will be closer to Michael Crichton's predicted value of 0.81 degrees Celsius, than the IPCC's value (via Wigley and Raper) of 3.06 degrees Celsius.
In other words, I predict that the actual warming of the lower troposphere from 1990 to 2100, as measured by satellites, will be less than 1.94 degrees Celsius.
Measurements should be done as a 3-year average centered around the year in question (i.e. 1989, 1990 and 1991, compared to 2099, 2100 and 2101).
My bet is only open to members of the IPCC. |
97 years
02005-02101
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Mark A Bahner |
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| 181. |
I predict that my projections for methane atmospheric concentrations, industrial carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and atmospheric concentrations, and resultant lower tropospheric temperatures will be more accurate than those found in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) Third Assessment Report (TAR).
The following are my (MB) projections and the IPCC TAR projections for methane atmospheric concentrations (in ppb, worth 1 point), industrial CO2 emissions (in Gigatons as carbon, worth 1 point), CO2 atmospheric concentrations (in ppm, worth 1 point) and lower tropospheric temperature increases (in degrees Celsius relative to 1990, worth 3 points). The projections are for the years 2030, 2070, and 2100.
2030, MB: 1790, 8.8, 425, 0.36
2030, IPCC: 2060, 13.2, 438, 0.80
2070, MB: 1825, 7.0, 527, 0.82
2070, IPCC: 2300, 16.4, 610, 2.17
2100, MB: 1840, 4.0, 558, 1.20
2100, IPCC: 2450, 16.4, 720, 3.06
Lower tropospheric temperatures are as measured by satellite, in a 3-year average around the year in question (e.g. 2030 would be 2029, 2030, 20310. This bet is only open to members of the IPCC. |
97 years
02005-02101
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Mark A Bahner |
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| 194. |
The world per-capita GDP in the year 2000 was approximately $7,200. The world per-capita GDP (in year 2000 dollars) will exceed $13,000 in the year 2020, $31,000 in 2040, $130,000 in 2060, $1,000,000 in 2080, and $10,000,000 in 2100. |
96 years
02005-02100
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Mark A Bahner |
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Bets & Predictions Bahners' challenged
Predictions that Bahner has challenged.
| No. | Bet | Duration | Stakes | Predictor | Challenger |
|---|
No Challenges submitted. |
