On the Record: Predictions

Discuss these predictions with the predictors themselves. If you decide you disagree, you can challenge a prediction and turn it into Long Bet.

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NO.PREDICTIONDURATIONPREDICTOR

44. By 2020, in real or artificial life, sustainable evolutionary progress in a genetically closed system will not have been demonstrated. 18 years
02002-02020
Brig Klyce

43. By 2030 all surgical anesthesia will be administered and monitored by computers, with no need for professional medical supervision beyond the surgeon. 28 years
02002-02030
Jason I Altman

42. That by 2024 "artificial" life emerging somewhere out of the soup of human technology will be given a Latin taxonomic name by biologists and others and declared viable for study. 22 years
02002-02024
Bruce F Damer

39. Music CDs compatible with current (2002) CD players will still be sold regularly in 2015. 13 years
02002-02015
Jacob A Walker

27. By the year 2020, the tickets to space travel - at the least to Moon, will be available over the counter. 18 years
02002-02020
Hemant Sharma

26. By the end of 2012, more than 50% of the root servers on the internet will be located outside the United States. 11 years
02002-02012
Bob Rosenberg

22. By 2100 a world government will be in place and in control of: business law, environmental law, and weapons of mass destruction. 98 years
02002-02100
Colin R Glassey

16. That by 2020 a wearable device will be available that will use voice recognition capability and high-volume storage to monitor and index conversations you have or conversations which occur in your vicinity for later searching as supplemental memory. 18 years
02002-02020
Gregory W Webster

15. By 2050 no synthetic computer nor machine intelligence will have become truly self-aware (ie. will become conscious). 48 years
02002-02050
Nova Spivack

14. In 2012, 75 percept of all revenue for enterprise software companies will be from subscription fees rather than license fees. 10 years
02002-02012
marc s sokol

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