On the Record: Predictions
Discuss these predictions with the predictors themselves. If you decide you disagree, you can challenge a prediction and turn it into Long Bet.
NO.PREDICTIONDURATIONPREDICTOR
521.
A nuclear explosive weapon will be used in war or terrorism.
21 years
02009-02030
James P Rutt
511.
There will be a Chernobyl National Park by 2035.
25 years
02009-02035
Stewart Brand
510.
Human population of the world will peak at or below 8 billion in the 2040s and then drop dramatically.
40 years
02009-02049
Stewart Brand
509.
By the end of 2011 it will be clear that the world financial crisis of 2009 had no effect on the rate of urbanization in the developing world, but it led to growth of the informal economy in those countries and to increases in global crime.
2 years
02009-02011
Stewart Brand
491.
The nation with the highest (nominal) gdp in the world in 2025 will be China.
17 years
02009-02027
Rogier M Sluimers
488.
California state government will dissolve in default.
2 years
02009-02011
Aaron H
483.
Google Earth / Street View will become a video gaming platform, where users can play Grand Theft Auto-like games virtually in their own neighborhoods. Users will be able to upload GPS-coupled renderings of the insides of buildings. Users will allow others to virtually enter their homes, to pass beyond the public Street View by entering a code serving as a key to unlock their front door.
4 years
02009-02013
Jason E Cafer
480.
By 2014 Twitter like products coupled with person mounted video cameras will allow people to lifecast every moment of their daily experience. Others in the community of users will be able to subscribe to the lives of those they wish to follow.
5 years
02009-02014
Michael S Sherrod
479.
By 2015 more internet requests will originate from mobile phones and other types of embedded devices than from desktop and laptop personal computers.
6 years
02009-02015
Eric Blankenburg
476.
If the LHC does not find the Higgs Boson or other "new physics", then Einstein's "last twenty years" will eventually be fully vindicated, including the most natural cosmological extension of general relativity to a finite, deterministic universe.
? years
02009-???
Richard A Ryals
