On the Record: Predictions
Discuss these predictions with the predictors themselves. If you decide you disagree, you can challenge a prediction and turn it into Long Bet.
NO.PREDICTIONDURATIONPREDICTOR
823.
The total Australian infected population from the COVID-19 virus will be less than 1% of the population.
2 years
02020-02022
Neeharika Prasad
822.
At least 8 out of the 10 years following 2020 will have a global mean teamperature that is going to be higher than the global mean temperature between Jan 1st 2000 and Dec 31th 2009 (+0.59°C relative to 1951-1980 average temperatures
12 years
02020-02031
Dr. Friederich Limbach
821.
By the end of 2030, Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) as measured by the Integrated Multi-Mission Ocean Altimeter Data will rise to 120 mm above January 1, 1993 (2 month average)
11 years
02020-02030
Dr. Friederich Limbach
820.
The COVID 2019 Coronavirus (also known as the Wuhan coronavirus) will have resulted in fewer than 10,000,000 fatalities by 2022-02-02
2 years
02020-02022
Rohit Patnaik
819.
The startup biopharma company EQRx will not have developed and brought to market its projected ten drugs during its first ten years. This widely quoted statement is simply not realistic.
10 years
02020-02030
Derek B Lowe
818.
By 2050 the cheapest type of fuel will be synthetic fuel from biomass, produced with nuclear-generated (fission or fusion) electricity.
30 years
02020-02050
Gabor Laszlo
815.
By 2035, 7500 extremely preterm human infants born in the US at 23 to 25 weeks gestation will have survived after being maintained beginning at birth in a fluid filled extrauterine device (artificial womb).
16 years
02019-02035
Jeffrey Horbar
814.
Global infant mortality defined as deaths within the first year after birth per 1000 liveborn infants will be 10 per thousand or less before 2035.
16 years
02019-02035
Jeffrey Horbar
813.
By 2025, there will at least be one prescription ready, effective probiotic medication to treat depression, caused by disturbances in the equilibrium of the gut microbiome.
6 years
02019-02025
Anand Gandhi
811.
By the end of 2030, one or more agency responsible for regulating securities and exchanges in a major global investment market will rule that the holding by professional asset managers of securities issued by fossil fuels companies constitutes negligence.
11 years
02019-02030
GARVIN JABUSCH
