On the Record: Predictions
Discuss these predictions with the predictors themselves. If you decide you disagree, you can challenge a prediction and turn it into Long Bet.
NO.PREDICTIONDURATIONPREDICTOR
815.
By 2035, 7500 extremely preterm human infants born in the US at 23 to 25 weeks gestation will have survived after being maintained beginning at birth in a fluid filled extrauterine device (artificial womb).
16 years
02019-02035
Jeffrey Horbar
814.
Global infant mortality defined as deaths within the first year after birth per 1000 liveborn infants will be 10 per thousand or less before 2035.
16 years
02019-02035
Jeffrey Horbar
813.
By 2025, there will at least be one prescription ready, effective probiotic medication to treat depression, caused by disturbances in the equilibrium of the gut microbiome.
6 years
02019-02025
Anand Gandhi
811.
By the end of 2030, one or more agency responsible for regulating securities and exchanges in a major global investment market will rule that the holding by professional asset managers of securities issued by fossil fuels companies constitutes negligence.
11 years
02019-02030
GARVIN JABUSCH
810.
In less than 24 months 1 man will make more cash value net worth, than any other persons individual entire networth combined.
2 years
02019-02021
Marcus Ray
809.
Measurement While Drilling Telemetry Transmission Rates will meet or exceed 10 bits per second reliably across more than 50% of the industry. Mud Pulse will meet or exceed 10 bits per second. Electromagnetic will meet or exceed 20 bits per second.
11 years
02019-02030
Kenneth C Miller
808.
Over the five years leading up to 2029, the US will use less paper in total than it did over the five years leading up to 2019.
10 years
02019-02029
Andrew P McAfee
807.
Over the five years leading up to 2029, the US will use less timber in total than it did over the five years leading up to 2019.
10 years
02019-02029
Andrew P McAfee
806.
Over the five years leading up to 2029, the US will use less tungsten than it did over the five years leading up to 2019, and the material will be more affordable to the world’s average person over the later period than the earlier one.
10 years
02019-02029
Andrew P McAfee
805.
Over the five years leading up to 2029, the US will use less tin than it did over the five years leading up to 2019, and the material will be more affordable to the world’s average person over the later period than the earlier one.
10 years
02019-02029
Andrew P McAfee
