Bet 832

Duration 11 years (02020-02030)

“At least 50% of new car sales in Australia will be electric (EVs) in 2030 or earlier.”


Holmes à Court's Argument

According to the Electric Vehicle Council, only 6,718 EVs were sold in Australia in 2019. While this is only 0.6% of new car sales in Australia in that year, it is more than three times the number sold in the prior year. Globally, EVs represented 2.5% of new car sales in 2019. When EVs represent something like 5% of new car sales, most car makers will cease development of new internal combustion engine drive trains. Increasing volumes and competition in the EV market, coupled with reduced battery and electronics costs through advancements in technology and production processes will help EVs achieve parity with the total cost of ownership for ICE vehicles during the decade. Not long after, and before the decade is out, EVs will be cheaper to purchase than ICE vehicles. (For the purposes of this prediction, EVs include battery electric, plug-in hybrids and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, but exclude "standard" hybrids that cannot be charged externally.)

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