james w walter (jimmywalter)

Bets & Predictions that walters' placed

No.BetDurationStakesPredictorChallenger
218.

I predict that we will be in a full fledged ice age by 2100. I predict that before that we will see volcanic activity that produces more CO2, irridium, and CH4 than mankind could imagine. We will have massive increases in snowfall and sea level first, followed by falling sea levels as the glaciers increase.

 15 years
02005-02020

james w walter
219.

I predict that this year will have the greatest snowfall on record, worldwide

 2 years
02005-02008

james w walter

Bets & Predictions walters' challenged

Predictions that walter has challenged.

No.BetDurationStakesPredictorChallenger
180.

Science fiction author Michael Crichton has predicted the world will warm by 0.81 degrees Celsius by the year 2100.

Thomas Wigley and Sarah Raper ("Interpretation of High Projections for Global-Mean Warming," Science Magazine, Volume 293, 20 July 2001) examined the projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the IPCC's Third Assessment Report (TAR).

Wigley and Raper concluded that the IPCC TAR projections were for a 50/50 chance of 3.06 degrees Celsius of warming from 1990 to 2100.

I predict that the actual warming of the lower troposphere (the atmosphere from roughly zero to 20,000 feet), as measured by satellites, will be closer to Michael Crichton's predicted value of 0.81 degrees Celsius, than the IPCC's value (via Wigley and Raper) of 3.06 degrees Celsius.

In other words, I predict that the actual warming of the lower troposphere from 1990 to 2100, as measured by satellites, will be less than 1.94 degrees Celsius.

Measurements should be done as a 3-year average centered around the year in question (i.e. 1989, 1990 and 1991, compared to 2099, 2100 and 2101).



My bet is only open to members of the IPCC.

 97 years
02005-02101

Mark A Bahner
196.

I predict that global warming denialists such as MIT professor Richard Lindzen will be shown to be wrong over the next 20 years as global warming continues. Specifically, I believe the scientific consensus that temperatures are likely to increase by .3 degrees Celsius over the next 20 is more accurate than the Lindzen/denialist position that temperatures are as likely to decrease as increase. Choosing a prediction that is halfway between the consensus and the denialist viewpoints, I predict that temperatures will increase by at least .15 degrees Celsius from 2005 to 2025. This bet is open to anyone who wants to accept it.

 20 years
02005-02025 		$4,000
$2,000

Brian A Schmidt

james w walter