On the Record: Predictions
Discuss these predictions with the predictors themselves. If you decide you disagree, you can challenge a prediction and turn it into Long Bet.
NO.PREDICTIONDURATIONPREDICTOR
710.
By December 31 02029 one of the world's top ten car manufacturers in 02015 (Volkswagen, Toyota, Daimler, GM, Ford, Fiat Chrysler, Honda, Nissan, BMW, SAIC) will stop manufacturing cars powered by internal combustion engines.
14 years
02016-02029
nigel p topping
701.
By 2065 a computer-based system will pass the “reality imitation game.”
50 years
02015-02065
Paul Beckman
685.
Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan will be found guilty at a court of law or will flee from the country by 2020.
5 years
02015-02020
ibrahim okuyucu
684.
“Due to a favorable political & social conditions, India's economy will grow over the next 10 years, specifically measured through growth of Fairfax India (FIH.U), an investment holding company. The company's closing price on May 5, 02015 was USD$ 11.50. I predict Fairfax India will earn, on average, an annual compound rate of return of at least 15% (including capital gains and dividends) over the next 10 years (May 6, 2015 to May 5, 2025)."
10 years
02015-02025
Ji Chen
683.
Within 50 years a legally binding "right to life" (a right not to be terminated or shut down with violation punishable as a capital offense) will be granted to software by some nation on Earth, effectively giving constitutional "human rights" to a software system.
50 years
02015-02065
Frank E Reed
682.
The United States will NOT adopt a single-payer health care system before the end of 02035
21 years
02015-02035
Matisse Enzer
681.
In the time from now until Dec. 31st 2020, Apple Inc. will not start to manufacture or sell cars (self driving or not) nor will they supply components - hardware or software - to car manufacturers.
6 years
02015-02020
Joerg W Schwieder
678.
Apple will release an electric car within the next decade.
10 years
02014-02024
Tobie Langel
677.
England and the United States will be unified as one kingdom.
? years
02014-???
Peter D Shively
675.
By September 27th 2071 long extinct trilobites (or direct descendents of) will be found in the deep waters of the seas possibly, but not exclusively, around underwater hydrothermal vents.
57 years
02014-02071
Vincent T Ciaramella
