On the Record: Predictions
Discuss these predictions with the predictors themselves. If you decide you disagree, you can challenge a prediction and turn it into Long Bet.
NO.PREDICTIONDURATIONPREDICTOR
740.
75% drop in the assets of pure Fundamental Long-Short Equity Hedge Funds by September 2019. These assets will transition to quantimental investing, smart beta products, statistical arbitrage funds, long only concentrated funds, event driven funds, etc
3 years
02017-02019
Anirudh Chowdhry
736.
Emulating Achilles: a White Man Will Start World War By 02051
-OR- The Great White Man Theory of History
34 years
02017-02051
Francis Hsu
734.
The Frank Value Fund, an actively managed US mutual fund, will outperform the S&P 500 Index over the next ten years net of all fees and expenses.
10 years
02017-02027
Brian Frank
724.
The rate of fatalities for seafarers will be ten times that for shore based occupations in 02021.
5 years
02016-02021
Brian M Sherwood Jones
721.
Within 1 million years, humanity or its descendants will have colonised the galaxy.
? years
02016-???
Gregory Stewart Cooper
718.
The CFR (Delivered) China price of Iron Ore (62% Fe) as published by Metal Bulletin and/or Platts, will surpass $200 USD per Tonne.
5 years
02016-02020
Brad A Resnick
710.
By December 31 02029 one of the world's top ten car manufacturers in 02015 (Volkswagen, Toyota, Daimler, GM, Ford, Fiat Chrysler, Honda, Nissan, BMW, SAIC) will stop manufacturing cars powered by internal combustion engines.
14 years
02016-02029
nigel p topping
701.
By 2065 a computer-based system will pass the “reality imitation game.”
50 years
02015-02065
Paul Beckman
685.
Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan will be found guilty at a court of law or will flee from the country by 2020.
5 years
02015-02020
ibrahim okuyucu
684.
“Due to a favorable political & social conditions, India's economy will grow over the next 10 years, specifically measured through growth of Fairfax India (FIH.U), an investment holding company. The company's closing price on May 5, 02015 was USD$ 11.50. I predict Fairfax India will earn, on average, an annual compound rate of return of at least 15% (including capital gains and dividends) over the next 10 years (May 6, 2015 to May 5, 2025)."
10 years
02015-02025
Ji Chen
