On the Record: Predictions
Discuss these predictions with the predictors themselves. If you decide you disagree, you can challenge a prediction and turn it into Long Bet.
NO.PREDICTIONDURATIONPREDICTOR
775.
At least 1000 people in one calendar year will depart Earth for Mars by the end of 2035.
17 years
02019-02036
Macon M McInnis
774.
Disney will make more than 10 Marvel universe movies outside those already announced by 2030. The movies announced but not yet released are Captain Marvel, Avengers: Endgame, and Spider-man: Far From Home - these three movies will not count against the 10.
12 years
02019-02030
John Smith
773.
Sparsity will be the dominant aspect of deployed deep learning models.
5 years
02019-02024
Erich Elsen
772.
In the course of the next 21 years (2019-2040), the value of technological "ecosystems" that bind people in to certain company's services and products, will be reduced.
? years
02019-???
Constantinos Kashioulis
769.
For the 2023 calendar year, the total per capita healthcare costs of Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway, JP Morgan Chase (ABC) US-based employees and dependents will be at least 20% higher than in 2018.
5 years
02018-02023
Joseph O Andelin
767.
By 2035 there will be an AI System that, without prior knowledge of the movie or related material, is capable of explaining the meaning of the movie "2001 A Space Odyssey" in a deep and meaningful way including a cogent explanation of how it pertains to the AI System itself.
17 years
02018-02035
Steven N Willmott
766.
A Hyperloop comercial (non-testing) system will be fully working somewhere in the world by the end of 2026, moving real passengers or real cargo.
8 years
02018-02026
Luis Gonzalez Lorenzo
762.
A Godfather of one of the Duke & Duchess of Sussex, Prince Harry & Meghan's children will be Barack Obama
? years
02018-???
Mitchell B C
761.
After Warren Buffett "retires," the next five-year capital gain on Berkshire-Hathaway stock will exceed the five-year capital gain before his "retirement."
? years
02018-???
Henry Buist
760.
At least one or more of the current tech-giant companies has a "Scorched Earth" doctrine that would be executed in the event of the emergence of a cyber-deity.
31 years
02018-02048
Jakob M Conner
