The purpose of Long Bets is to improve long–term thinking. Long Bets is a public arena for enjoyably competitive predictions, of interest to society, with philanthropic money at stake. The Long Now Foundation furnishes the continuity to see even the longest bets through to public resolution. This website provides a forum for discussion about what may be learned from the bets and their eventual outcomes.   MORE »

Featured Bet

Duration 4 years 02017-02020

Martin Rees

Steven Pinker


will go to Givewell if Rees wins,
or Givewell if Pinker wins.

Featured Prediction

Duration 9 years 02020-02030

Dale Vince