Bet 404

Duration 7 years (02008-02015)

“By 2015 the majority of people who make predictions on this site will have had their genomes sequenced.”


Rothberg's Argument

People that make predictions are interested in the future, and there will be no better way to know your own potential fate then to have your genome sequenced.

The Watson Genome cost $1,000,000 in early 2007, showing you could sequence human genomes in the miniature at costs proportional to the feature size of the "sequencing element". This year the same study costs about $200,000. Following these new scaling laws full human genome sequencing will drop to $10,000 per person within the next 3 years.

Large-scale correlation studies linking genotype to phenotype will predict predisposition to disease, quality of life during aging, and response to medication, as well as give us a near complete understanding of complex genetic diseases, and expected lifespan.

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