On the Record: Predictions

656. “Neither the Google car nor any other fully autonomous car will be marketed to the general public by 2025” 12 years
02013-02025 Wendell Wallach

655. By 2020, across at least 25% of the continental US, the cost of new solar or wind will be lower than the cost of either new coal or new natural gas. 7 years
02013-02020 Ramez Naam

653. “The first ice-free Arctic day (as defined by NSIDC) will occur by the end of 2020.” 7 years
02013-02020 Ramez Naam

652. The average annual Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) computed from US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data for Nevada during 1981-2030 will be the same or higher (that is, conditions will not be drier) than during the previous 50 years (1931-1980). 18 years
02013-02031 Franco Biondi

641. Kickstarter will still be its own independent company by January 1st 2018. 5 years
02013-02018 Doctor M Popular

638. By 2042, residential photovoltaic (PV) electricity systems will cost less than $0.90/watt, installed and commissioned, supplying AC electricity for $0.02/kwh to $0.05/kwh, depending on geographic location. 30 years
02012-02042 John La Grou

637. The phenomenon of larger than expected black holes ala NGC 1277 will be identified as a marker of advanced alien societies progressing according to John Smart's transcension hypothesis. ? years
02012-??? Benjamin P Woosley

636. By the end of Obama's second term as President, The Central Bank of China will publicly announce that they have an amount of gold in reserve that is greater than Germany's. 4 years
02012-02016 zeev kirsh

633. By the year 2037, all driving on highways and city streets will be completely automated, the only place to freely drive will be specially designated tracks. 25 years
02012-02037 Samuel J Dreyer

630. A data-driven, objective model can identify startups likely to succeed and startups likely to fail. 4 years
02011-02015 Eric Laughlin

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