On the Record: Predictions
Discuss these predictions with the predictors themselves. If you decide you disagree, you can challenge a prediction and turn it into Long Bet.
NO.PREDICTIONDURATIONPREDICTOR
660.
By 2015 Tesla Motors will sell a <$30,000 electric car.
2 years
02013-02015
Pat Carolan
659.
Iranian women will become the dominant force in Iranian politics by 2020 and kick out the concept of a Supreme Leader.
7 years
02013-02020
Michael Sales
658.
By 2030, the apostrophe will have functionally disappeared from American English.
17 years
02013-02030
Whitney Dedaimia
657.
By 2030, 30% of libraries existing today will not have walls (buildings).
17 years
02013-02030
Hornung Susan
656.
“Neither the Google car nor any other fully autonomous car will be marketed to the general public by 2025”
12 years
02013-02025
Wendell Wallach
655.
By 2020, across at least 25% of the continental US, the cost of new solar or wind will be lower than the cost of either new coal or new natural gas.
7 years
02013-02020
Ramez Naam
653.
“The first ice-free Arctic day (as defined by NSIDC) will occur by the end of 2020.”
7 years
02013-02020
Ramez Naam
652.
The average annual Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) computed from US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data for Nevada during 1981-2030 will be the same or higher (that is, conditions will not be drier) than during the previous 50 years (1931-1980).
18 years
02013-02031
Franco Biondi
641.
Kickstarter will still be its own independent company by January 1st 2018.
5 years
02013-02018
Doctor M Popular
638.
By 2042, residential photovoltaic (PV) electricity systems
will cost less than $0.90/watt, installed and commissioned,
supplying AC electricity for $0.02/kwh to $0.05/kwh,
depending on geographic location.
30 years
02012-02042
John La Grou
