These bets are set in stone until they reach judgement. Read the arguments written in favor of each position and discuss the bets with the bettors themselves and the rest of the Long Bets community.
NO.PREDICTIONDURATIONSTAKESPREDICTORCHALLENGER
8.
The US men's soccer team will win the World Cup before the Red Sox win the World Series.
? years
02002-???
$2,000
$1,000
Mike Elliot
Ted Danson
7.
The universe will eventually stop expanding.
? years
02002-???
$2,000
$1,000
Danny Hillis
Nathan Myhrvold
5.
By 2012, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times will have referred to Russia as "the world leader in software development" or words to that effect.
10 years
02002-02012
$10,000
$5,000
Esther Dyson
Bill Campbell
4.
By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.
28 years
02002-02030
$2,000
$1,000
Craig J Mundie
Eric Schmidt
3.
A profitable video-on-demand service aimed at consumers will offer 10,000 titles to 5 million subscribers by 2010.
8 years
02002-02010
$2,000
$1,000
Jim Griffin
Gordon Bell
2.
In a Google search of five keywords or phrases representing the top five news stories of 2007, weblogs will rank higher than the New York Times' Web site.
5 years
02002-02007
$2,000
$1,000
Dave Winer
Martin Nisenholtz
1.
By 2029 no computer - or "machine intelligence" - will have passed the Turing Test.
27 years
02002-02029
$20,000
$10,000
Mitchell Kapor
Ray Kurzweil
