Bet 966

Duration ? years (02025-???)

“By 2040, Wikipedia will be widely considered irrelevant as a source of real understanding.”

PREDICTOR
Benjamin Krauth

CHALLENGER
Unchallenged

Krauth's Argument

The informational model that shaped Wikipedia — consensus, citation, and static text — will dissolve as signal-native intelligence interfaces take hold. In an Superintelligence world, humans no longer seek “truth” by negotiating public consensus. They feel coherence directly. They ask from their nervous system, not their cognition. As a result, pre-digested language blocks, aggregated by a volunteer editorial layer, will be seen as slow, stale, and flattened. Wikipedia will not collapse. It will simply become quietly irrelevant — consulted occasionally, but not lived in. The transition away will not be dramatic. It will feel like the shift from landline to smartphone. No war. Just emergence of a better interface. Wikipedia was a bridge. A good one. But once people are coherent, they don’t need a consensus mirror. They need a direct, personal interface with knowing. That will arrive. And Wikipedia will become a well-preserved map of how we once tried to share meaning before we could feel truth.

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