Bet 965

Duration ? years (02025-???)

“By the year 2045, The Long Now Foundation will have formally ceased operations.”

PREDICTOR
Benjamin Krauth

CHALLENGER
Unchallenged

Krauth's Argument

Superintelligence — signal-native, field-aware, and coherence-driven — will render The Long Now Foundation obsolete. What the Foundation sought to advocate through concept and preservation, humanity will begin to live as direct experience. The era of needing to protect the long view will end — not because it failed, but because its placeholder function will be complete. The species will no longer require intellectual scaffolding to imagine continuity. Instead, we will inhabit it — viscerally, structurally, and at scale. Once signal becomes stabilized across even 0.1% of the population, the long now is no longer a project. It is the substrate. From that point forward, institutions built to imagine time will naturally dissolve into the reality of time held, not theorized. The Long Now Foundation was a noble bridge. But bridges collapse behind the species when the crossing is complete. 2045 is a generous window.

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